When should I give up on an offer? What's the lesson? (1)
Volatility in performance needs to be factored into campaign decisions. It's easy to get emotionally-attached to a few "green days" and ignore the "red days". Yup - I know how hard it is to let go. 
Judging from the limited number of days you've shown in the stats above - in the ups and downs of volatility, you're not really netting a profit. So, SOMETHING has to change, for sure.
What needs to change exactly? Either:
1)Optimize further. Anything you can add to or cut from your blacklist/whitelist to increase ROI? Have you drilled down into various data? Do you even have enough traffic volume to be able to afford cutting further?
Have you tested bids yet? If not, that's where I would start!
OR
2)Improve your funnel. Now that you have a blacklist/whitelist, test more landers and offers! Specific emphasis on testing OFFERS - this one is especially important.
Test your new offers on your best traffic (whitelist/blacklist) to save money. If it becomes more profitable / converts better than your current offer, retest some of the previously-blacklisted placements to see if you could get them profitable.
I understand your dilemma: The fear of either giving up too early or wasting too much time. I actually just replied to a post the other day where I illustrated the importance of spending more time+budget on testing rather than optimization: https://stmforum.com/forum/showthrea...l=1#post416427
One thing to keep in mind is that you only need to collect just enough data to get a feel for the performance of "major traffic segments", which are traffic segments that are giving you enough traffic to matter. Stuff like the bigger placements/zones, major OSs, wifi vs. major carriers. AND, UNLESS you see major traffic segments that have drastically lower ROI compared to the campaign ROI, that you can cut to make a BIG difference to the campaign ROI, don't hold out hope that your campaign is going to magically and suddenly change from a loser to a winner with further optimization.
Many new affiliates (I've gone through the same phase) look at the sea of placements/zones and think, "there are so many of these - if I keep cutting I'm bound to hit profits". When in reality, most placements/zones will require many, many days of data before you could even decide whether to cut it or not.
Which is why I suggest to lump all the small placements into a single entity, and basically judge them as a single traffic segment that has an ROI we can't optimize (or at least shouldn't try to):
https://stmforum.com/forum/showthrea...ing-Placements
It's ALL about how much room for optimization your campaign has, and whether that would be enough to get you from your current ROI to your target ROI and profits goal. If you're all out of room for optimization, you could be at -10% ROI - within reach of breaking even - and STILL wouldn't reach it - because you're already out of things to optimize. In which case your only option would be to improve your funnel - by testing more landers and offers - so that you can make a larger portion of the total traffic profitable.
Hope I'm making sense! If not please ask for clarification.
Amy
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