The Guru Complex and Making Better Mistakes (11)
So I watched this vid last night...
http://www.ted.com/talks/tim_harford.html
It one of those awesome TED talks that I highly suggest you watch as it applies to a lot of what we do.
I take a little liberty here and call it the "guru" complex as opposed to "god" because that is the term we use in our biz....
anyways its only 15 min long so It should be ok even for you ADHD'ers but I will sum it up anyways and apply it to what we do...
It talks about the importance of trial and error in solving a complex problem....and that we often rely to much on the fact "we think we know better" or "I have done it that way before and it worked" or "a guru said this is the way to do (pick your traffic source)"...and how we are afraid to deviate from the norm...
our complex problem is getting offers to convert....as simple as it sounds there are an absolute shit ton of variables that effect that system...so much so that just one thing is off...and we fail....(no conversions)
we often go to great lengths to copy others thinking we have a found the "simple" solution...but often come to realize that we only can see a small piece of the whole system....then we wonder why....it still doesn't work.....
Well this got me to thinking about alot of what I read here in the forums....about case studies, follow alongs, issues we are having on campaigns...let me bring in an example from the video...
in the video he talks about a Unilever (detergent manufacturer).....and how they went through 40+ dif variations of a nozzle till they found one that worked the best...constantly a/b testing the control to achieve a better result....
BUT
prior to doing that they had hired a whole r+d team to design this super awesome nozzle....funny thing is...it didn't work right....didn't perform at all the as they though even with all modeling and computer simulations they had done..
The thing is when working with fluids its a chaotic system your trying to bring order to....
AND
guess what .....thats much of what we do in IM....
We are trying to bring some type of order to the conversion process...design a system that can be repeated to produce consistent results
BUT
Have you ever really sat down and though out how many dif variables there are? How many dif things can effect your overall ROI..?
Time of day
gender
age
offer
network the offer is on
the color of the lp
the color in the image
the type of image
the border on the image
the words in the headline
the words in the body copy
the day of the week
the month of the year
the number of other affs running the offer
the bid price
the place you are in the bid stack
your ad rank
your ad ctr
your lp ctr
the length of the lp
the load time of the lp
the number of redirects
the country
the offer payout
the color of the text
the color of the button
the CTA
I can keep going and going and going.....
you can't possibly model all of those out...or find a simple solution to them all...
so have I lost you yet?
Let me bring it all together....
The point is I am trying to make is....you can only predict so much...the rest needs to be solved by you taking action...getting data....finding the winner....then testing again....again...and again...
well duh unicorn.....
ya sounds simple when I say it but how many of us do it? Really ask yourself that one question....then once you had that honest moment with yourself....I have one more point I would like to make...
making better mistakes....
so many times here in the forums I see so many follow alongs or questions or ideas that mimic others or lack variance from the norm....
so what I challenge you to do is take an idea YOU THINK is working....(from spying, a forum case study...etc...)
Then get crazy with it...don't just change the image and expect to be making $x,xxx/day.....
Get crazy, bring some randomness into the equation....you have a control....now experiment..get wild....test a wacky idea...this is your chance to win!!!
THIS is where is so many people....(including myself sometimes) FAIL....we make the SAME mistake....over and over and over again.....we keep trying the same shit over and over again...sticking within norms...hoping that somehow or another I can optimize it to profit..
why not make a BETTER mistake and try something creative...out there...something outside the norm....
Mr. Green often talks about one of his best camps....something that you wouldn't think to do....
he ran a non-mobile offer on mobile traffic...wasn't formatted at all...you'd think to yourself...."there is no fucking way thats gonna work".....well it did....and quite well....
he tested something crazy....he stepped out side the norm....and it paid off big....
we often say...."why fix what isn't broken" and that def holds true....
BUT
The large rewards, the big payoffs come from from the land of creativity, randomness and stepping outside the norm....
SO in this up and coming new year I challenge you to make "why fix what isn't broken" your starting point in 2012...and not where you hang your hat....
oooooo.... and watch the vid its good stuff
This comes to mind
http://www.mrgreen.am/affiliate-mark...y-eye-results/
Just goes to show that the only thing that matters is data, beats "theory" and "best practices" any day
Nice share, mr.unicorn!
The "God complex" sure makes people short-sighted and arrogant.
Great video, thanks for sharing polar! Love the correlation you made in applying this mentality to our complex problem in getting offers to convert. I'm constantly puzzled by how often we fail to truly embrace this mentality of trial and error, split testing, a/b testing, multivirate testing, etc. I'm guilty of this myself, there's no doubt. But why? Why don't we spend more time on our campaigns testing, making mistakes, etc. and truly optimizing? I believe it's one, or a combination of the following reasons...
1) Fear. Fear of losing money, fear of risk, fear of failure.
2) Laziness. It's easier to copy, steal, borrow, etc. than take risk and try new things. If it ain't broke, why fix it?
3) Time. "But I don't have time to sink into trying new things and testing...it just takes too much time!"
4) Knowledge. Knowing where to start. I feel just knowing where to start (despite advice, reading blogs, forum posts, etc.) can FEEL overwhelming, especially for newer affiliates.
There's plenty of other excuses as well such of lack of money, resources or even lack of patience as so many times I feel we want that instant gratification of launching campaigns and winning. But it's not reality. And these are just excuses and stories we tell ourselves from avoiding having to put any real work into our campaigns. Testing (relentlessly), trying new things and trying to make 'good' mistakes is where it's at. Great share man, thank you!
human insecurity exists no matter what level of success you achieve. successful people learn to harness it. others do not.
Fantastic post, Polar.
Everyone's always looking for that magic bullet.
Well, there is indeed a magic bullet... But the bullet's not in the offer or the traffic source or the network...
The bullet's in the process of testing and constantly improving your deployments.
Yes, it's the process that holds the keys to riches.
The one thing that distinguishes novice marketers from pros: Split testing. Constantly testing new variations. Constantly improving your ads.
That's all.
The moment you start sitting on your ass and not improving your deployments is the moment your shit gets ripped and your ROI runs to zero.
And then you've got nothing.
But: If you have a process, if you know the path to successful campaigns, then you'll never be far from a winning campaign, no matter how many people rip your landers.
Here's a fun anecdote to drive home the point.
Yes, it should be called The Marketer's Mantra: You don't know shit. You are your data's bitch.
Thanks for the share! another video I probably wouldn't have come across.
I love you, Mr. Bacon.
Originally Posted by polarbacon
In other words, they tested over 400 variations until they found the one that worked the best.
This is why I've always thought case studies are pointless for the majority of people.... sure, "some" marketers will look at them to see some technical aspects, or how the marketer problem solved.... but imo the vast majority that seek out case studies are doing so to copy them. You give a Ferrari to a guy that doesn't know how to drive, and he'll either smash it or not even get it out of gear.
Originally Posted by inversion
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