Affiliate Network BS and Borderline Conspiracy Theory. (5)
So at this point I am not going to publicly or rather privately, this is a private forum right?, say who the network is that is the topic of this post.
Not sure exactly where this thread should go so I will stick it here. Mods feel free to move it as you see fit, not like you needed my permission. 
For over a week now I have had a sneaking suspicion that something strange is going on with my conversions and my signup/lead ratio with a certain aff network. I am in Ukraine so it wasn't as obvious for me at first because I am way ahead of PST. However my Prosper as well as this particular aff network are in the same time zone and confirm what I have been feeling.
THE PROBLEM: There were many days when my profitability would be much higher (ie a higher ROI) early in the morning than later in the day. I was seeing several hundred percent returns only to see them slide by the end of the day. So I started digging into the numbers as any good little affiliate marketing padawan should do.
Not saying anything is shady, but my gut tells me something somewhere just ain't right and my instincts seem to be right 99.99% of the time. Every time I get burned or have made big mistakes it was because I chose to ignore what my gut was telling me. Always listen to your guy!
So you say Sean WTF are you babbling about show me the data! Ok well you asked for it. What I am about to show you is three graphs from Prosper with the relationship between SU/Ratio, click volume, and leads generated. This data is shocking, it may cause small children to cry, may make you vomit uncontrollably, and you may lose all control of your bowels while reading this.
This is dating which is even more frustrating because the good times should be in the evening 5pm onwards right?
Clicks
Leads
S/U Ratio
The Solution:
A. Stop working with Aff networks where all it takes is a pulse to get an account.
B. Continue to network and build relationships that will open up doors to the really good networks out there. Hint hint, if anyone wants to send me private messages about this it would be great and much appreciated.
C. Or I can just cry in the corner like a little baby.
Only time will tell which path I choose.
So how can it be that a high converting (according to network statistics) dating offer has conversions taking a shit as the day progresses when they should be improving or at the very least staying somewhat consistent with the volume of traffic? It is clear to see that there is actually an inverse relationship between click volume and leads / sign up ratio. WTF Chuck!
So you be the judge, I merely presented the case.
I'm not sure hour-dependent scrubbing is something affiliate networks do. This is all just normal behaviour, CVR is never flat across the day, and yes often CVR goes down with increasing volume, it depends on a lot of things. This is why you get data -> find hours/days with higher ROI -> daypart to those periods of time to make more money.
1) Don't jump to conclusions. About what times of day work and about affiliate networks doing dodgy things.
2) Your data isn't really extensive, you need a lot more to get a decent trend of S/U rate vs hour to daypart from. ROI/volume equally important too. In the early hours you have no volume so your data isn't reliable.
3) Without split tests vs another network with an identical offer/lander you again can't say any of this has anything to do with the affiliate network.
How long have you been running total ? How many clicks in avg per day are you sending ? Compare your day to day stats, as from the graphs I see just one day.
Compare your results to your timezone set in prosper and to the timezone your targets are in. Honestly spoken, I don't find that data shocking at all, at least not from the screenshots you included. It's one day, there's nothing to complain about if your stats are based on one day. Get volume, compare and see what's really going on.
Also, zeno said it already, simply split test and take it from there while your data isn't representative at all as well.
Originally Posted by zeno
No I understand that some of the data may not be a large enough sample to be conclusive. I do have multiple examples of similar data I just wanted to show this day as the trend seemed more clear about what I felt was happening. You mentioned looking at hours with highest ROI, I have definitely looked at that but I think if I made adjustments based on this the ROI would be much higher but the volume wouldn't be large enough. I will take a biggger $ net than a higher ROI any day.
I don't have another network with this exact same offer but I will look into that.
@fkj87 I also don't think the data is shocking, it was just a joke and me writing in the middle of the night and being dramatic
Clicks per day were about 1,000 for this day. I did compare the timezones, this offer is in the US so the tracking, aff network, and target audience are all in alignment plus or minus three hours. This specific offer I have been running for several weeks.Thanks for the feedback guys.
I think you need to collect some more data, but if you're still profitable regardless of the diminishing returns, it's a nice problem to have.
What happens when you activate the campaign at, say, 6pm, as opposed to letting it run 24/7?
Is the lower CVR directly related to a drop-off in the hours that it's been running, or does it happen across those hours regardless?
On some traffic sources, if you're not using a frequency count effectively, you will notice that performance drops through the day as the same users burn through your creatives.
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