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Grinding offers until Green - Quick Case Study (16)

01-14-2022 03:32 PM #1 ScottyG (Senior Member)
Grinding offers until Green - Quick Case Study

Long time STM, I recently took a couple months off for holidays to celebrate but I'm back now to play around with TikTok.

Unfortunately I had my juicy ECom offer get shut down so I decided to start from scratch and do a classic grind.

What is a grind?
Simple, you test offers non-stop, all-day until you hit a winner.
It's very unhealthy but can be very profitable if you have ADHD and zero responsibilities in the outside world.

I decided to track how many offers I tested and the results of every one to get a rough baseline for future testing.
This way, when I fuck off again for 5 months and everything goes to shit, I'll roughly know how many offers it's going to take to find some green.

Figured this might be useful for people getting into AM and wondering how long it takes to find a money-maker.


I have some basic rules I follow when mass testing offers.

$200 starting budget:
If leadgen: I check for conversions and look for a minimum of -50% ROI before giving it any more cash
If Ecom: I'll want at least 4-6 InitiateCheckout's or 10~ Add to Carts depending on the funnel events

If it doesn't have IC's, ATC's or conversions that equal -50% ROI or better, I kill it.

3 by 3:
For every offer I test, I write down 3 angles then create 3 unique videos based on those angles.
When setting up the offer, I do a non-CBO campaign with 9 ad groups total.
Each video has a standard Ad Group, wide-open (25+ male/female android/ios no interests)
I then duplicate each of those Ad Group's twice so each video has 3 ad groups
This provides each video a fair chance while also accounting for bad pool's

Automation:
Couple ways to do this but when mass testing offers, it's critical to have some sort of automated system in place to kill losers without you wasting valuable time doubling back to check campaigns.
TikTok has automated rules, I personally have scripts based on Day Trading strategies but to each their own.
Whatever you do, make sure you kill losing ad groups based on your specific criteria

Tracking:
To effectively grind out offers, you need to know how your tracker works inside and out. It's your best friend for rapidly setting up new offers, testing them and gathering data.
Don't skim over Offer Sources and URL templates, they're essential when you want to test 20 offers in a day.


Results

Alright, the only shit you care about.

TL;DR: Out of 30 offers I tested, 2 are 30% ROI, 1 is 175%~ ROI and the rest sucked.

I spent 4 days grinding out offers, my goal was to test 10 offers effectively every single day but I had a couple drinks and went overboard once I found a sign of life.

Day 1:
Tested 4 ecom offers, all 4 failed horrifically. I'm talking 0.3% CTR bad. Killed.
Launched 3x biz op in the morning, got a single conversion after -$600, sigh. Killed.
Switched over to leadgen and started trying out refi a bit, no bites after -$200, killed.
Asked around and had a couple people tell me TikTok is causing them to bleed lately. Wonderful.
Setup 5 education offers and 2 more ecom around 8pm, paused to launch tomorrow.

P/L: -$1545

Day 2:
Education all failed, three conversions total. Killed. -$920
Bizop showed promise but died, going to give it another shot tomorrow. -$400
Setup more ecom offers, 3x. All failed. ECom is a bitch post Q4. -$500

P/L: -$1820

Day 3:
Went hard on leadgen today, setup 10x offers for finance, education, refi, home loan, debt, legal.
8x failed but we finally see our first green camps out of this bunch. (Can't reveal winners, you see my current losses, don't judge me).
I create 12x ads for the two winning camps and start exploring it more.
I also setup another 4x offers for similar offers to my current winners.

P/L: -$1230

Day 4:
Still green, one camp is popping off with the new ads. I start scaling this slowly.
Setup another 3x offers for ecom, all died out. ECom is a battlefield right now. -$600
My green camp is starting to push four figure revenue at 150% ROI, I drop all the running offers except for my greenies at this point.
I negotiate a different payout structure for one of the leadgen offers that was 5% ROI and this gets it a boost to 30%.
Payout terms are figured out and then I start to scale the 150% ROI.
I make 6x more ads for it so I can avoid creative burnout and start pumping up the budgets.

I end up hitting 7k revenue on the first day when all the dust settled, hoping to take it to 20k a day when cap is lifted. Quality seems good.

P/L: $3670


I hope this poorly structured random case study-esque post helps someone.

Unfortunately affiliate marketing is a numbers game and if you can grind out offers without letting the losses psych you out, you'll come out on top eventually.

I also hope this helps some new killers get an understanding that this isn't free, easy money.
I put in a 50 hour work week in 4 days while bleeding money left and right before I found a single winner to bring me back even. It was going to get a lot worse if I didn't get a little lucky too.

01-14-2022 05:30 PM #2 alexgb (Member)

The man, the legend @ScottyG

Cut your losses, let the profits run

01-17-2022 05:07 PM #3 leadmarketing ()

The legend, Somtimes I wish i'm an ADHD hahaha, just few questions if you don't mind:
Do you make your own creatives or outsource them, if you've a platform or a paid service that provides this and you can share it, I will aprectiate it.
What's the network you're working with when it comes to offers.
Thank you,

01-17-2022 08:25 PM #4 ScottyG (Senior Member)

Quote Originally Posted by leadmarketing View Post
The legend, Somtimes I wish i'm an ADHD hahaha, just few questions if you don't mind:
Do you make your own creatives or outsource them, if you've a platform or a paid service that provides this and you can share it, I will aprectiate it.
What's the network you're working with when it comes to offers.
Thank you,
I make all my own creatives but outsource for duplication on backstage.

A ton, 30+ lately lol.

02-11-2022 05:30 PM #5 schlossy (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by ScottyG View Post
Automation:
Couple ways to do this but when mass testing offers, it's critical to have some sort of automated system in place to kill losers without you wasting valuable time doubling back to check campaigns.
TikTok has automated rules, I personally have scripts based on Day Trading strategies but to each their own.
Whatever you do, make sure you kill losing ad groups based on your specific criteria

hey, what is a way to set specific criteria for leadgen campaigns on whether to kill the ad group? some times a new offer is tested so no previous data to compare with. Any general guideline you follow?

03-14-2022 08:58 PM #6 quintyfresh (Senior Member)

@ScottyG

I see my problem now. I only launched 10 or so SOI spent $600 and have the balls to complain. You just showed me the error I am making here. Thanks for posting this. I am going to get faster and better about grinding offers for sure. My funnel setup is good enough, and I fully understand my tracker. It's just about launching tons of stuff until something sticks to the walls. Stop bitching and start launching.

I hope this poorly structured random case study-esque post helps someone.

Unfortunately affiliate marketing is a numbers game and if you can grind out offers without letting the losses psych you out, you'll come out on top eventually.
Thanks again for this.

03-14-2022 11:24 PM #7 matuloo (Legendary Moderator)

Quote Originally Posted by quintyfresh View Post
@ScottyG

I see my problem now. I only launched 10 or so SOI spent $600 and have the balls to complain. You just showed me the error I am making here. Thanks for posting this. I am going to get faster and better about grinding offers for sure. My funnel setup is good enough, and I fully understand my tracker. It's just about launching tons of stuff until something sticks to the walls. Stop bitching and start launching.



Thanks again for this.
When I started with paid traffic, I had to test dozens of landing pages, hundreds of banners and plenty of offers to reach steady profitability, and back than it was all way easier than it is now. It's different from one source to the next, but it definitely takes more than 10 offers

03-15-2022 11:42 PM #8 ScottyG (Senior Member)

Quote Originally Posted by schlossy View Post
hey, what is a way to set specific criteria for leadgen campaigns on whether to kill the ad group? some times a new offer is tested so no previous data to compare with. Any general guideline you follow?
If it's leadgen and going to work, it'll be green within $200.

If it's green within $50, it's hot.

Completely different for ecom, gotta risk it more.


Quote Originally Posted by quintyfresh View Post
@ScottyG

I see my problem now. I only launched 10 or so SOI spent $600 and have the balls to complain. You just showed me the error I am making here. Thanks for posting this. I am going to get faster and better about grinding offers for sure. My funnel setup is good enough, and I fully understand my tracker. It's just about launching tons of stuff until something sticks to the walls. Stop bitching and start launching.



Thanks again for this.
No worries mate, glad it helped. I did the same shit and overanalyzed every offer.
I just grind em' out now like a video game, it's fun and easy.

03-16-2022 09:15 AM #9 isha_18 (Member)

Which optimization goal do you prefer start and get few 50 conversions which one is good to go like traffic, video views etc? And after 50 which event to go with lead gen offers? Also do you suggest to start with CBO in testing phase or just in scaling?

03-16-2022 02:48 PM #10 ScottyG (Senior Member)

Quote Originally Posted by isha_18 View Post
Which optimization goal do you prefer start and get few 50 conversions which one is good to go like traffic, video views etc? And after 50 which event to go with lead gen offers? Also do you suggest to start with CBO in testing phase or just in scaling?
I've answered this like 4 times dude

Leadgen, I use submitform. No 'warmup' for optimization.
I start $200~ CBO for testing.
Scale from there.

03-20-2022 06:59 PM #11 kulwantnagi (Member)

Quick questions for @ScottyG

1. For lead gen campaigns, how many ads would you suggest in an ad group?
2. What will you suggest to use, CBO or ad set budgets?
3. Should one use automated creative optimization while testing?
4. What works better for lead gen camps generally, direct linking or landing pages?

03-21-2022 02:15 AM #12 ScottyG (Senior Member)

Quote Originally Posted by kulwantnagi View Post
Quick questions for @ScottyG

1. For lead gen campaigns, how many ads would you suggest in an ad group?
2. What will you suggest to use, CBO or ad set budgets?
3. Should one use automated creative optimization while testing?
4. What works better for lead gen camps generally, direct linking or landing pages?

1. 2-4
2. CBO, $200 daily
3. ACO always
4. Direct and demonstrate the flow to take in the ads.

03-21-2022 11:25 PM #13 2 Live (Senior Member)

Quote Originally Posted by ScottyG View Post
If it's leadgen and going to work, it'll be green within $200.

If it's green within $50, it's hot.

Completely different for ecom, gotta risk it more.




No worries mate, glad it helped. I did the same shit and overanalyzed every offer.
I just grind em' out now like a video game, it's fun and easy.
Hey scotty, when you say you gotta risk it more for ecom, do you mean more has to be spent on lower-funnel conversions or because some ecom products have higher price tags, therefore you will need a bigger testing budget?

Thanks!

03-22-2022 11:55 AM #14 ScottyG (Senior Member)

Quote Originally Posted by 2 Live View Post
Hey scotty, when you say you gotta risk it more for ecom, do you mean more has to be spent on lower-funnel conversions or because some ecom products have higher price tags, therefore you will need a bigger testing budget?

Thanks!
Both, it's just much more difficult to get someone to part with money instead of personal information.

05-27-2022 09:06 AM #15 projectzero (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by ScottyG View Post
If it's leadgen and going to work, it'll be green within $200.

If it's green within $50, it's hot.
Hey @ScottyG,

Trying to understand initial testing for lead gen.

Is that $200 regardless of what the payout is? The lead gen offers I'm looking at are between $2-$8 payout. Wondering how I should adjust budgets accordingly. (Also, I'm looking at FB traffic not Tiktok if that matters.)

05-27-2022 03:18 PM #16 stungads (Senior Member)

Quote Originally Posted by projectzero View Post
Hey @ScottyG,

Trying to understand initial testing for lead gen.

Is that $200 regardless of what the payout is? The lead gen offers I'm looking at are between $2-$8 payout. Wondering how I should adjust budgets accordingly. (Also, I'm looking at FB traffic not Tiktok if that matters.)
I don't think it's a hard and fast rule. For example, let's say you spend like $35 and your payout is $8, if we're going by the test 3xCPA then $32 would be enough to get you the initial results. So at $35 spend, look at your CTR if it looks bad under 1% and if you didn't get any conversions then you'd probably want to pause that ad.

If it was me, I probably play the devilish side and let it go to $50 spend to see if there's any conversions and see what my CTR looks like, but then again that's just me. Everyone has a tolerance of how much they're willing to spend on a campaign.

In Scotty's situation, he's willing to put down $200 only if he's seeing some conversions roll in and the CTR looks reasonable. Typically, I don't think he'll let a campaign run at the $50, $100, $150 mark if he didn't see any conversions coming in. Once he reaches $200 spend, if the campaign is over -50% ROI he'll pause the campaign. In a way, this is a good approach because you don't get too emotional about it and moves on to the next offer.

I know what you might be thinking...maybe he just needs to work on the creative, or maybe he just needs to get the targeting honed in. In this case, he's doesn't want to waste his time how he can tweak a -50%+ ROI campaign when he can throw up another creative for another vertical that can be profitable out the gate. There's a post somewhere either by Scotty or Cassshy but they say something like if you throw $200 at a offer it either works or it doesn't.

I myself need to adopt this method of quickly testing multiple offers because I feel like I'm too attached/emotional about the offer I'm running now instead of focusing on creatives for another vertical that can pop off right out the gate.

3by3
For every offer I test, I write down 3 angles then create 3 unique videos based on those angles.
When setting up the offer, I do a non-CBO campaign with 9 ad groups total.

Went hard on leadgen today, setup 10x offers for finance, education, refi, home loan, debt, legal.
@ScottyG to clarify how do you come up with 9 ad groups total? Wouldn't it just be 3 ad groups because you're only creating 3 unique videos? Assuming it's 1 ad per ad group.

Unless each angle has one unique video, but there's 2 slight variations to the video, either the music, opening hook, CTA, etc...

How are you testing offers so quickly? I know you put in 12-15 hour days, but filming and editing a video takes me like an hour. The apps I'm using are InShot & TikTok App & Veed(to resize to TT format).

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