Hi,
1. What's a good way to see if an offer is too saturated/competitive or still worth trying?
Seems affiliate offers with most traffic are pretty common and in the same niche like diet, ear ringing, diabetes, fungus.
2. Are campaigns without tracking tool a clear indicator that the ads are run by the offer owner?
I found an offer that doesn't seem too saturated and trending upward however well performing ones don't seem to be using tracking tools according to Adplexity native.
Is this a good sign or no?
3. Do I still need to use a tracking tool when promoting my own offer using native ads?
Many thanks!


1. Test it and find out.
Reality is: no offer will ever become saturated. Humans are human. Skin, diet, sales, lead gen are never saturated. Ever.
2. No.
Spy tools are just ineffectual at finding trackers (and all sort of other shit, like widgets) with Native. Lots of pixel tracking might affect this, but I doubt it.
3. You don't need to.
But I've found there are two types of people running without a tracker:
You have no idea what you are doing.
Or.
You know exactly what you are doing.
Since you're asking the question, I'm going to lean towards the former. It sounds like you're spinning wheels and not taking any action.
Get a damn tracker and learn how to set up campaigns and use it.
You can play on spy tools all day and search for the perfect offer and then try to run it on ... where? Taboola? RevC? Outbrain? MGID?
Do you have hosting? You gonna direct link it?
Of course, I could be totally wrong.
You might already be crushing it by direct-linking Native Ads without a tracker.
But then you probably wouldn't be asking the question 
To pile onto what both @jack_l and @jaybot have said. Spy tools seem to be horrible at identifying trackers or affiliate networks. I've seen my own ads on spy tools and they failed to identify my tracker as
If you had a very good network that you could pass tokens to and see in detailed reporting, then no, you wouldn't need a tracker. But, most networks don't have that. So you'll be dependent upon what if any detailed reporting the traffic source offers. Or, just get a tracker and not have to worry about it. And to be completely frank, if you are running Native, the cost of a tracker should not be a big hurdle, if so you need to increase the size of your warchest before starting.
And as to saturation, the big things will never get saturated. Something I have heard said more times than I can count, "Health, Wealth and Sex". People will always be interested in those three things. If the angle wears out, then just come up with a new angle, preferably one that shows your product or service satisfying one of those three.
Finally when it comes to running your own offer, no you don't need a tracker. Your server should log everything for you. Of course, you'll need to get the data out of that log somehow... Or you could just use a tracker of some sort.
To put some real numbers to everything. A very common starting budget on Native is $100 a day, in fact some platforms have a minimum daily budget of $50-$100 a day. So if you ran one campaign every day for a month, you'd spend $3000 on traffic. Without any discounts,
Trackers in 2021 are totally useless for white native ads, nowday you can optimise and clean publishers directly from the source. Trackers are good for black hat or for push and pop traffic (since you need to rotate a ton of landing pages in order to get the right optimisation). You dont need to rotate and test a lot of LPs on native (since native plays more with small modifications of the content of the LP instead testing hundreds of different LPs). If your margins are high than buy the tracker but combine it with theoptimizer, and you will be able to scale really fast...