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How to choose a GEO and an offer? (11)

03-18-2021 01:41 AM #1 dseopro1000 (Member)
How to choose a GEO and an offer?

Hello, I've been struggling a lot on how to become profitable and I realized I have a very novice question on how to do a 'pre-evaluation' before choosing an offer and a GEO. (probably a good fit for @vortex @matuloo @twinaxe chime in if you can! thank you!)

For example:

There is a CPL dating offer that I liked and it looks good paying $0.017 per lead on Malaysia.
I went to PropellerAds and found out that the "optimal CPM" on popunder for that GEO is $0.90

I made some math and realized that it means that to become breakeven it has to convert 53 times - or a CR of 5.3%.


But in my tests I realized that it is not that easy to convert on popunder, and 5.3% would be HARD. If I would use PUSH the expected loss would be even worse.


So does that mean that I shouldn't even pursue this offer on that GEO and that TS? As it is almost certain that I will lose money?


Is my math correct? Is it ok for me to do that type of math before I try to pursue any offer or is there another way?

03-18-2021 02:04 AM #2 dseopro1000 (Member)

I did the math with other GEOs and found that the same offer has to convert only 0.7% on CA and 0.9% on NZ because of different payouts. Much more doable.

What that means in term of pursuing those GEOs?

03-18-2021 04:42 AM #3 jaybot (Veteran Member)

The fun thing about AM is that you can do all the math in the world and it won’t mean shit until you actually ran the offer and saw results

Math and stats nerds like Amy and twinaxe will probably roll their eyes, but you really don’t need to do complicated stats or analysis before testing any campaign other than, can I afford this traffic? Is the payout x 10 going to bankrupt me? If those are good, then you’re good to go.

Also.

Payouts are higher in higher tier geos because traffic or volume is more expensive there. The price of a CPA is set for this very reason. Don’t be fooled by running an offer in CA or US will be better because the payout is higher.

03-18-2021 12:13 PM #4 dseopro1000 (Member)

Thank you for your answer, jaybot! I have a low budget, that is why I wanted to do a "pre-screening" but you're right I'll test it!

Quote Originally Posted by jaybot View Post
Payouts are higher in higher tier geos because traffic or volume is more expensive there. The price of a CPA is set for this very reason. Don’t be fooled by running an offer in CA or US will be better because the payout is higher.
But on CA and NZ I did the math with their respectives traffic prices already

03-18-2021 04:32 PM #5 matuloo (Legendary Moderator)

Quote Originally Posted by dseopro1000 View Post
But on CA and NZ I did the math with their respectives traffic prices already
But still, you don't know what the real conversion rate will be like. So this is not "real math" just assumptions and predictions. The traffic quality will have it's say too. You really need to run a test to see where you stand.

The math comes into play once you have some data. So let's say in case of the MY campaign, if you see that you can convert just 1% of the visits and you would need 5.3% to breakeven... that's not likely to happen. But if you hit 3% straight of the bat, then yes that sounds doable. This is the kind of math you need to be doing

But anyways, the MY payout looks very low for a CPL offer, I have serious doubts about this being able to work. Then again, the conversion flow might be super simple so who knows. Just give it a try on a small budget. You will quickly whether such low payout even makes sense to mess with or not.

When I'm deciding whether to mess with a GEO, I look at how many offers of the same vertical I can get in it, because I always want to split test multiple ones. And it's also good to have a backup in case I lose an offers from whatever reason. I rarely test a GEO just because of one offer, unless I get it recommended by someone I trust.

03-18-2021 06:07 PM #6 dseopro1000 (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by matuloo View Post
But still, you don't know what the real conversion rate will be like. So this is not "real math" just assumptions and predictions. The traffic quality will have it's say too. You really need to run a test to see where you stand.

The math comes into play once you have some data. So let's say in case of the MY campaign, if you see that you can convert just 1% of the visits and you would need 5.3% to breakeven... that's not likely to happen. But if you hit 3% straight of the bat, then yes that sounds doable. This is the kind of math you need to be doing

But anyways, the MY payout looks very low for a CPL offer, I have serious doubts about this being able to work. Then again, the conversion flow might be super simple so who knows. Just give it a try on a small budget. You will quickly whether such low payout even makes sense to mess with or not.

When I'm deciding whether to mess with a GEO, I look at how many offers of the same vertical I can get in it, because I always want to split test multiple ones. And it's also good to have a backup in case I lose an offers from whatever reason. I rarely test a GEO just because of one offer, unless I get it recommended by someone I trust.
That really helped me, the struggle to find a good GEO was answered perfectly on your last paragraph but I didn't know how to put it in words.


Thank you so much matuloo!

03-19-2021 05:42 PM #7 twinaxe (Senior Moderator)

But anyways, the MY payout looks very low for a CPL offer, I have serious doubts about this being able to work.
I know the offer, it has a pretty specific flow.

It´s basically a survey with few questions and a conversion is already triggered when a user answers the questions.

Just imagine running an adult campaign with a rules lander but instead of running SOI/DOI offers you get already paid each tiem a suer clicks through to the offer, no matter of the result.

03-19-2021 07:51 PM #8 jaybot (Veteran Member)

Quote Originally Posted by twinaxe View Post
I know the offer, it has a pretty specific flow.

It´s basically a survey with few questions and a conversion is already triggered when a user answers the questions.

Just imagine running an adult campaign with a rules lander but instead of running SOI/DOI offers you get already paid each tiem a suer clicks through to the offer, no matter of the result.
So... low quality is not an issue?

I have a lot of pop traffic to sell them.

03-20-2021 03:34 PM #9 twinaxe (Senior Moderator)

Quote Originally Posted by jaybot View Post
So... low quality is not an issue?

I have a lot of pop traffic to sell them.
Unluckily it´s still an issue, the offers have cap followed up by quality control.

03-24-2021 03:23 PM #10 matuloo (Legendary Moderator)

Quote Originally Posted by twinaxe View Post
I know the offer, it has a pretty specific flow.

It´s basically a survey with few questions and a conversion is already triggered when a user answers the questions.

Just imagine running an adult campaign with a rules lander but instead of running SOI/DOI offers you get already paid each tiem a suer clicks through to the offer, no matter of the result.
Ah, that would be a game changer This explains the low payout then as it's not actually a CPL offer... wondering how this one should be called? Pay per answer?

03-28-2021 02:15 PM #11 twinaxe (Senior Moderator)

Quote Originally Posted by matuloo View Post
Ah, that would be a game changer This explains the low payout then as it's not actually a CPL offer... wondering how this one should be called? Pay per answer?
These offers are called survey feed.

I also tested it in few geos, they definitely convert but I didn´t spend enough time to get it really going.

These offers also try to monetize each user twice.

When the user clicks on the CTA they get redirected to an offer and at the same time the page refreshes to another offer.

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