Estimate campaign potential (7)
Hello,
I am quite new to affiliate marketing. I read through a lot of posts and also to the post about affiliate math. Furthermore I previously read this blog post from Jason Akatiff: https://jasonakatiff.com/blog/metric...dollar-funnels
I have a computer science/math background and was thinking if you can calculate the campaign potential before starting the campaign.
- Would something like this make sense?
- How do you do this usually? What's your reference data?
Really appreciate your replies!
Yes, something like this would definitely make sense! In fact affiliates do this kind of math all the time.
Basically you have unknowns at every step of the funnel - from the amount of traffic available, to the average bid (CPM/CPC), to the landing page CTR, to the offer CR.
And the more of these variables you can predict accurately, the better you can be at determining the profits potential of a campaign.
So how do you predict these variables?
-Based on past data - if you've targeted the same geo etc. before on the same traffic network, you'd have a pretty good idea on how much traffic is available and maybe even the average cost of traffic (assuming the campaign targeting for your current new campaign is similar to past campaigns). You may even have an idea on the kind of lander CTR you can expect to get for the particular vertical.
-Based on actual, initial test data - whether you have past data to reference or not, you can run some initial test data to get some actual data to gauge a campaign's potential.
-Based on intel from the affiliate network - your AM would sometimes tell you the overall CR on an offer, which may or may not be a good indicator of success/failure, depending on whether they are truthful in the first place (some networks like to inflate numbers to encourage affiliates to run their offers), and the quality of the traffic sent by the other affiliates (for example if they're running FB and you're running pop, don't even hope to get similar CR).
It's good to keep this type of math in mind, so that you can spot a loser early on and either kill it or figure out a way to effect major optimizations.
If you have an actual example, we can discuss specifics. 
Amy
Sent from my iPhone using STM Forums
@vortex covered pretty much all of the details needed to look at a new offer in order to estimate its potential.
I used to do these type of calculations in messy excel spreadsheets, but recently managed to put it all together to the below calculator.
https://special.theoptimizer.io/tools/calculator
Originally Posted by platinum
Amy
Sent from my iPhone using STM Forums
I would like to add that you can also use some very basic stuff like "common sense" for a first estimation.
Then you can do a quick and dirty check for things like
- Is there enough volume available
- Is there a good ratio between traffic price and offer payout
- Are there enough good offers available to test
With such things you can alrady get a rough idea if it´s good what you plan to run or if you should better run something else.
Originally Posted by twinaxe
Thx for your reply!
Can you name some ballpark figures? What is a good ratio between traffic vs. price? Enough volume? Enough good offers?
Appreciate your reply!
I guess, firts of all you need to figure out some top networks, then check the volumes of traffic, and just test a couple of offers with this traffic
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