New Privacy First Internet = Death of AM ? (18)
The current online advertising ecosystem relies heavily on the use of 3rd party cookies. That's all about to change.
First, Google Chrome will no longer support third-party cookies from 2022 and as a result 3rd party cookies will die. This will change the entire online advertising space as it operates today.
Next, Google's vision for the future of the internet. Specifically, its plan for a new, open-source, privacy-first web standard called “Privacy Sandbox” where all user information remains in the browser and limited, anonomised data can only be obtained via API while websites adhere to a “Privacy Budget”. Exceed your privacy budget and your site won't work !
Google “Privacy Sandbox” project
Google is pushing for this to become the new web standard as opposed to merely browser privacy settings. Straight from the horses mouth:
As we’re removing the ability to do cross-site tracking with cookies, we need to ensure that developers take the well-lit path of the new functionality rather than attempt to track users through some other means.
Our focus (more details to be added)
Fingerprinting:
Privacy Budget
Removing Passive Fingerprinting Surfaces
Client-side language selection
User-Agent String
Reducing Entropy from Surfaces
Device Sensors
Battery Level
IP Address
Cache inspection
Partitioning HTTP Cache
Connection Pools
Sessions Tickets
HTTP Server properties
Other caches
Navigation tracking
Referer clamping
Network Level tracking
DNS
SNI
Moar TLS
Welcome to the new, privacy-first internet !
I'm new to the world of AM, but some implications for affiliate marketers immediately spring to mind:
- No more redirect-based tracking. As rotation is not possible with direct tracking, AB split testing of landers, offers or paths will no longer be possible.
- No targeting/optimising for individual users. Browsers will no longer reveal fingerprints so no more targeting by device, OS, model, browser, language etc
- No more cookies-based conversion metrics
- No more Frequency capping (as that relies on 3rd party cookies)
- No more retargeting
So what's will the future of online advertising look like in a Privacy First internet age?
According to clearcode.cc, it's likely the advertising landscape will revert to very basic-level contextual targeting and site targetting only. Possible targeting of anonymised groups of people who share an interest, but targetting of individuals will no longer be possible. Browsers will be responsible for reporting conversion events via API and conversions will not connected to an individual user.
Like I say, this is my layman's understanding but from what I can gather this is massive and the internet will soon be in a new and very different phase.
https://www.chromium.org/Home/chromi...rivacy-sandbox
AM is much more than Google, thanks for the heads up, gonna explore some more!
Oh, is affiliate marketing dying again?
Wasn´t it dead 15 years ago already?
@jalexa don´t get me wrong and thanks for the thread.
But almost every year we hear something like affiliate marketing is dead, pops are dead, emailing is dead, banners are dead, push is dead and so on.
And usually new challenges bring up new oportunities as well.
My 2 cents: Affiliate marketing will continue to grow and for new obstacles there will be new solutions.
@stickupkid. No problem. When you've had a chance to read up, let me know your thoughts.
@twinaxe. I admire your optimism and having spent time recently devouring STM content, you're clearly a very experienced affiliate and a valuable member here. That said, I think you've been a bit too hasty in instantly dismissing this issue! Respectfully, I would ask you to take a look into it as I am convinced it will have major impact on the AM industry. There are numourous articles from respected publications have written about this topic and the impact the changes will have. If you reach a different conclusion, that's fine too, but at least take a look before you dismiss out of hand as being "just another scare story".
Folks: This isn't about Google as a traffic source. It's about the way browsers will behave in the not-so-distant future. In hindsight, I should have titled this thread "Soon, browsers won't permit targetted online ads" as that would hammer home the point a little better.
Originally Posted by jalexa
https://developer.mozilla.org/fr/doc...w/localStorage
Originally Posted by jalexa
Client-side language selection is not removed but a bit changed. Server side language selection remains ok.
You will still be able to query for some device parameters, but Chrome will give you a quota. This might impact bot detection JS libraries.
Originally Posted by jalexa
Originally Posted by jalexa
Originally Posted by jalexa
Originally Posted by jalexa
Originally Posted by jalexa
- Ad rotation still possible as well as AB testing when done server-side.
- You will be able to query the parameters you need. They want to avoid abuse, which is having providers collecting large amounts of info.
- You do it server side + an AJAX call based on variables in local storage
- There are other ways to do it.
- Like in the AdBlock case, the largest networks will probably sign agreements with Google
As you can see, the impact will be rather limited for AM. Google still relies heavily on paid advertising.
Their focus is on fingerprinting companies:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/03/t...hat-to-do.html
These are no new info, there was some talk about it last year already.
The thing is, even when it has that impact on affiliate marketing then the trafficsources, trackers and CPA networks have enough time to work on solutions for it.
Affiliate marketing is a multi million/billion dollar industry and you can be sure that all the other platforms won't silently accept without having a "Plan B" that Google pushes new policies that would destroy many peoples business.
This is what I meant with new challenges bring new opportunities.
In the end we can just wait and try to prepare a bit in case that when tension grows we can continue to run our biz.
The good old "Adapt or die"
As long as these policies are not implemented I keep my biz running just as usual.
And from the past we know that Google announced big chances that will kill *insert term here* with the next chrome update several times already where nothing drastic happened then.
The way I see it, things will definitely change, it's coming and it cannot be stopped.
On the other hand, google itself is totally dependent on ad revenue and without sales tracking, they would lose a HUGE part of their business... so I'm pretty sure there will be other ways of tracking sales (I'm pretty sure they already have a solution) and our industry will just have to adapt to the new systems.
FYI this was also posted about on this STM thread here.
Most of it is gibberish to my non-techie brain...but I'm sure some super smart dudes will figure something out 
The sky isn’t falling (yet) but all the issues brought up by the op can’t be ignored either.
It’s a fact that attribution has gotten worse over the past year or two because of the browser based privacy first policies.
If you are a direct advertiser and you buy ads from google or Facebook but can’t fully attribute the source, it’s an annoyance. But at the end of the day you still got paid by a customer.
When you are an affiliate that doesn’t get attribution for the sale you made. You don’t get paid, but the merchant still makes money from the sale you generated.
Just want to add that I’d almost say it’s 100% a given that Google/Fb etc would rather work with the merchants directly vs having affiliates injected in the middle of the transaction.
We are already seeing Google doing that for some industries (travel/hotels/shopping) and essentially becoming the affiliate.
Long way of saying, the solutions they come up with may solve attribution for merchants and direct advertisers.
But not be helpful for situations where affiliates are involved.
Cutting out affiliates just means extra billions that can now be diverted to them.
Who wouldn’t want that?
Good to see there are companies out there like Google constantly fighting to protect us mere mortal's privacy.
It's ironic, maybe even disgusting given they store all your farts on their server.
When I hear Google having a "Privacy Sandbox" project that sounds like a disguise to ringfence data, so only Google can monetize it.
Originally Posted by mindfume
When they wouldn´t have an advantage they just wouldn´t do it.
"Don´t be evil" my ass
Lots of input, thanks to everyone that's contributed to this discussion. This is quite a large topic.
Originally Posted by mindfume
Bingo! Part of the proposed Privacy Sandbox is the concept of a "Privacy Budget" whereby a website will have to call Chrome via API in order to obtain (much more limited) information about the user. The more info requested, the more you would be eating into your privacy budget. Here's where I suspect Google is planning to monetize their new privacy sandbox. Sininster, if this turns out to be true. All in the name of “user privacy”, when it's actually about increasing its bottom line and walled garden.
Next, conversion data. This would not be reported in real time (as it could make it possible to identify the user). Rather, conversion data would be aggregated and current proposals are that it would be shared anywhere from 3-7 days afterwards in bulk. Again, this would be sent from the browser via API. So you could be running a campaign and you wouldn't know how well it was converting until up to 7 days later (assuming the user doesn't clear the data on their browser before it's had a chance to send the data, of course..).
On a wider note: When you stop and think about all this for a moment something has occurred to me. When it comes to the internet, the most powerful companies in the world are BROWSER operators, of which Google/Chrome is obviously the most dominant by far.
So, when you think about it, the entire online advertising ecosytstem is being turned upside down because 3 browsers (Safari, FireFox and now Chrome) decided to change their policy towards cookies/privacy. Never thought about it this way until recently, but those that control the browser, control the internet.
Lastly, these changes will not only harm the buy side. Google has done tests whereby it prevented 3rd party cookies on publisher sites. The tests showed that Ad revenue dropped by 52% for the 500 largest publishers, with a 64% drop overall. So, publishers - especially smaller ones - will also see their revenue fall drastically when cookies-based advertising ends. Frightening stuff.
Originally Posted by Mr Baffoe
I got your point, if they act as affiliates themselves, they could keep the share that the other affiliates make, but that would mean less competition in certain areas that affiliates are good at monetizing. It's quite possible that they wouldn't be able to find enough direct advertisers to cover certain traffic segments... maybe they even do realize that and that's why they focus on the more competitive areas that you mentioned: travel, hotels...
It could happen though, in case they manage the come up with a superb AI that can optimize EVERYTHING and beat affiliates in all aspects. Maybe we are heading to a model where you will have to own a product to be able to advertise on these large sources... hopefully not though
Originally Posted by matuloo
Here’s my logic, which may be wrong.
All my research points to affiliate marketing being a $7 billion industry in 2020. Some reports seem to indicate it’s for the US and others make it seem like it’s the global size.
My assumption is that 7 billion was spent in the industry as a whole. I will just simply and say all that was spent on commissions.
That means that overall affiliates had to spend less than that to be profitable.
Let’s say affiliates averaged a 30% roi. This means 5.3 billion was spent on ads. At 10% $6.3 billion was spent.
Break that into quarters and we have between $1.34 and $1.6 billion spent on ads.
Google and Fb made $58.7 billion last quarter. At absolute best we made up 3% of their combined revenue.
When you consider affiliate sales are driven from multiple different sources and not just google and Fb, I get the feeling we are not a channel and revenue stream they would jump through hoops to protect.
Especially since they could capture that revenue directly by going directly and cutting affiliates out. They’ve certainly needed affiliates for the data to train their ai, that will eventually reduce (more likely) or eliminate (very possible)the need for affiliates.
As always, it seems like affiliates eventually get the short end of the stick.
I have done some extensive reading into google, Safari and brave docs on their plans for privacy preserving tracking and attribution. They don’t give us much to work with.
On the bright side, there’s a two year warning.
Which is enough time to prepare to be anti-fragile in response to the coming changes.
Google and Fb made $58.7 billion last quarter. At absolute best we made up 3% of their combined revenue.
But I always take the market estimates with a large grain of salt... after all, affiliates cause a lot of trouble and require massive compliance/approval teams to be maintained by both FB and Google... if it was just 3% of their revenue, I guess they would simply ban affiliates from advertising on their platforms entirely. Would be less hassle on their end, lower staff expenses etc...
As always, it seems like affiliates eventually get the short end of the stick.
Originally Posted by matuloo
But I always take the market estimates with a large grain of salt... after all, affiliates cause a lot of trouble and require massive compliance/approval teams to be maintained by both FB and Google... if it was just 3% of their revenue, I guess they would simply ban affiliates from advertising on their platforms entirely. Would be less hassle on their end, lower staff expenses etc...
This is very true, affiliates are welcome at any new source but as soon as it matures and the bigger clients come in, they treat us like an unwanted child
I personally don't think Google even intentionally wants to go after affiliates, they just want to cut out middle men and women. AKA A move to gain more control and dominance over the AdTech ecosystem for greater profits. Affiliates are collateral damage.
Facebook doesn't own a browser, but they are certainly aware that the better their AI gets, the more likely business owners will work with them directly. Reducing dependance on 3rd parties (affiliates) which gives them a bigger slice of the marketing budget pie. Just look at how much heavy lifting their AI does for advertisers. Mark Z didn't do this to make affiliate's lives easier.
Same with Apple/Safari I think they are going after FB and Google to weaken their dominance, and once again affiliates just got bundled in as collateral damage.
So neither Sundar Pichai or Tim Cook bothered to say to their browser teams.
"Hey make sure to take care of affiliates, make sure they can track properly. We don't want to lose that revenue stream!"
The hundreds of billions they are fighting over, makes our single digit billions look like crumbs.
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