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Sudden Drop in RPU (18)


12-04-2011 03:57 PM #1 richardj (Member)
Sudden Drop in RPU

Hi there!

I was running several campaigns through GT on PPV very successfully last month, but this month my revenue seems to be dropping dramatically (to the point where I'm no longer profiting on most campaigns).

Last month, on 1 campaign alone I had 122,264 views on my landing page, 8677 email submits (7% CTR) and 6301 users on my GT path with an RPU of $0.85.

This month so far, on the same campaign I have 11,741 views, 568 email submits (4.8% CTR) and 392 users on the GT Path with an RPU of $0.67.

Yesterday my RPU was $0.33.

As you can see the CTR and RPU are both dropping, but what causes this? It's a relatively high volume target so it seems unlikely that I have exhausted the traffic for the target.

Do I just need to refresh my landing pages? Or how else can I revive the campaign? Or is this campaign (and others similar) just slowly dying off?

Thanks!


12-04-2011 04:24 PM #2 MJDUB (Senior Member)

I've noticed pretty low overall RPUs myself. I'd really like to know why there has been such a sudden decline in RPUs.


12-04-2011 04:48 PM #3 nitroman (Member)

Try increasing your freq. cap to 1/72 and see if that helps.

However I have also seen a pretty big drop on some of my placements that have been steady for months with high freq caps in place. I spoke to my Rep and he said nothing was changed... Now that you's are also seeing the drop theres definately an issue that needs resolving. I'm gonna have another word with my Rep and see whats goin on.


12-04-2011 05:23 PM #4 danny27 (AMC Alumnus)

Same here and traffic volume fell too.


12-05-2011 01:34 AM #5 pancakes (Member)

Have you guys tried split-testing with other coreg networks like SP or FluentCo?


12-05-2011 02:50 AM #6 phoenix (Member)

its BULLSHIT! that nothing has changed.

no one is talking about it, BUT if you test the various carriers.

you will see that some are 'poppin' the information forward to your next pages and others are not.

no company I talked to is giving the 'truth' I have seen this myself, matched it with other aff's and had 2 network owners tell me.

believe your data... no one else matters.

YA! the duck is back and his feather are ruffled !!! :P

"best advice ever given: grow up and grow a pair...no one will care if you dont!"


12-05-2011 10:37 AM #7 richardj (Member)

Thanks for your input.

Interesting to see others chiming in with similar issues.

Nitroman - I have tried increasing my frequency cap to the highest level and still no joy!

Pancakes - SP have never performed for me, ever. I get users to the path but a really awful RPU, regardless of which campaign I choose. I've never tried Fluent so will check them out. Do you see good RPU's with Fluent?

Phoenix - Maybe because it's Monday morning or I'm just thick, but I don't really understand.... Are you saying you've seen a sudden drop in your RPU also?


My next steps are to:
- refresh my creatives
- get my GT paths optimised

Will let you know how things go...


12-05-2011 02:35 PM #8 dantheman (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by nitroman View Post
Try increasing your freq. cap to 1/72 and see if that helps.

However I have also seen a pretty big drop on some of my placements that have been steady for months with high freq caps in place. I spoke to my Rep and he said nothing was changed... Now that you's are also seeing the drop theres definately an issue that needs resolving. I'm gonna have another word with my Rep and see whats goin on.

How do you set freq. cap to 1/72?


12-05-2011 02:57 PM #9 bbrock32 (Administrator)

Just for you folks , a new case study coming comparing GT , SP and the new entry Fluent media.


12-05-2011 02:59 PM #10 animalsinwar (Member)

Hi guys,

If you're seeing drops in RPU using GT, feel free to reach out directly to me if you haven't already. There's plenty I can test to hopefully get you back up to the returns your were previously seeing.

Justin
GameTheory


12-05-2011 03:50 PM #11 invisible777 (Member)

I've been running coreg for years, here are a few observations and tips that may or may not have been discussed prior:

- GT, SP and Fluent are nearly identical and typically make and enforce compliance changes in sync. That being said, some are more stringent on compliance than the others, and some are far more aggressive with their offer page designs.
- Fluent "runs through" SP. In other words, they are a big SP affiliate and they do the majority of their revenues on SP shortcodes and offers. GT has their own shortcodes.
- A carrier compliance update about a month ago now only allows 1 mobile offer per path for a Verizon or ATT number. This major change may or may not have been communicated to you by your rep, but had an enormous effect on RPUs since then.
- User/visitor scrubbing: make sure you have a mechanism in place to physically count EVERY form submission INTO the path. Coreg networks (one in particular) manipulate user count to artificially inflate RPUS. If you aren't counting user submissions on your side, you might think the math is like this:

coreg network shows: 80 users
revenue: $80.00
rpu: $1.00

when in reality you most likely sent 100 users, thus only yielding an 0.80 "actual rpu". You'd be shocked to see these discrepancies (as high as 40% on one of the big 3 in my experiences), so test. To be fair, my rep and I have spoken extensively about this with their dev team, and while I consider it scrubbing, the network will explain that a cookie determines what qualifies as a user (e.g. if they visited in the last 60 days, they aren't a user). As far as I'm concerned, every person that registers on my site is an opportunity for coreg revenue, and I'd like the data to report as such.

- iframe the path onto your domain. never redirect the user off-domain.
- RPUs and ROI on coreg campaigns have historically been horrible 2nd half of November - early/mid January. It's like the carriers are hitting some sort of yearly caps maybe based on region, and stop crediting leads back to the network. Just a theory, no proof to back that up.
- expect compliance/regulation to basically see the elimination of mobile offers from coreg paths in the next 12-24 months... again just a theory, but have spoken about with people in the legal community extensively.
- Stay away from Smiley.
- RPUs have been on a downward trend for years. When I started, $2.25+ RPUs were not unusual.

Anyway, happy moneymaking. Hope RPUs pick up soon for us.


12-05-2011 07:33 PM #12 pbakos92 (Member)

Could you give us a little more info on what the people you've talked to in the legal community have said about mobiles? Also, were they just normal lawyers you explained it to, guys involved with the FTC, legal counsel for coreg companies...?


12-05-2011 07:49 PM #13 invisible777 (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by pbakos92 View Post
Could you give us a little more info on what the people you've talked to in the legal community have said about mobiles? Also, were they just normal lawyers you explained it to, guys involved with the FTC, legal counsel for coreg companies...?
My personal lawyer and counsel who specializes in FTC litigation and general internet business, ecomm and marketing law. Basically, the FCC has never been happy about "unwanted" charges on cell phone bills and a lot of pro-consumer legislation could change that. Google News FCC and cell phone bills--long history there. The state of the US govt right now is pro-regulation and pro-consumer, so crippling laws with regards to cell phone subscriptions are inevitable. One of the things being floated is that consumers will need to OPT IN to "3rd party billing" as oppose to OPT OUT on their wireless acount. Meaning, if a user goes through your path who didn't opt-in their wireless account for 3rd party billing, they won't be eligible to subscribe to any of your mobile products/subscriptions/whatever. Makes you think--how many people would opt-in? 5%? Less?

ATT and VZW make huge, huge money from 3rd party billing companies. You can be sure they are lobbying away.


12-05-2011 08:02 PM #14 pbakos92 (Member)

I've read the AG plea to the FTC concerning this, the vast majority of the regulations suggested pertained to landline billing. In fact, the opt-in-with-the-carrier idea is suggested only for landlines, not cell phones.

As long as the only thing that happens is increased compliance (traffic source and landing page-wise), mobiles will stay in coreg paths, but the RPUs will definitely nosedive. Mobile billing is an industry in it's own with MUCH potential, not even counting these ringtone/brain facts/horoscope companies. The ability for consumers to pay for products in person via their mobile phone is something that will most likely pick up a lot more steam in the future. Landline billing, on the other hand, has much less potential for legitimate, wide-reaching uses. Therefore, I believe mobile campaigns in coreg paths will persist for much longer than 12-24 months, but landline billing will not be so lucky.


12-05-2011 08:06 PM #15 invisible777 (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by pbakos92 View Post
I've read the AG plea to the FTC concerning this, the vast majority of the regulations suggested pertained to landline billing. In fact, the opt-in-with-the-carrier idea is suggested only for landlines, not cell phones.

As long as the only thing that happens is increased compliance (traffic source and landing page-wise), mobiles will stay in coreg paths, but the RPUs will definitely nosedive. Mobile billing is an industry in it's own with MUCH potential, not even counting these ringtone/brain facts/horoscope companies. The ability for consumers to pay for products in person via their mobile phone is something that will most likely pick up a lot more steam in the future. Landline billing, on the other hand, has much less potential for legitimate, wide-reaching uses. Therefore, I believe mobile campaigns in coreg paths will persist for much longer than 12-24 months, but landline billing will not be so likely.
I like your prediction better than mine! And yeah, I totally agree. Mobile billing is getting bigger. I was in Macy's the other day and you could pay using your cell phone/Google wallet at any register. It's the horoscopes SMS type stuff that is going to get regulated or killed eventually.


12-05-2011 08:35 PM #16 pbakos92 (Member)

I agree, oroscope/SMS campaigns most likely will die off. IQ quizzes used to be HUGE, but now most large carriers don't allow new IQ quiz campaigns to be certified, as they have very low perceived consumer value and are basically deceptive in nature. The same can most likely be said for all SMS campaigns, horoscopes, flirting tips, etc. However, there are ways around this, and they're being used now - bid-and-win campaigns, coupon campaigns, ringtones (classic), etc. Unlike the SMS campaigns, these do provide some value to consumers, and I can't imagine any regulation ever shutting Ringtone Portal or Bid-and-Win sweepstakes models.

That being said, the issue becomes the billing mechanism itself; coreg companies will push these campaigns with legitimate consumer value by trying their best to hide the fact that the user is subscribing to something (which they do now, hence the high RPUs). So despite the fact that the campaigns offer value, the consumers usually don't know they're purchasing something and therefore aren't seeking or usually receiving the value provided, which is more or less the same as pushing scammy SMS campaigns in the first place.

The only way to combat this is stricter compliance rules and monitoring efforts. There won't be any regulation that destroys mobile billing in general as long as there are legitimate uses for it; it's like saying the FTC will outlaw credit cards because of credit card fraud. Instead, possible regulations on marketing practices, stricter marketing rules on the parts of the carriers, as well as increased marketplace monitoring will inevitably someday move the majority of the industry to adapt much less deceptive practices. When this happens, mobiles will still be alive and still be in coreg paths, but the RPUs will be far worse.


12-05-2011 10:18 PM #17 phoenix (Member)

this is the best description of what has happend with ATT & VZW with co-reg in the last month.

and ya... I have YET to have any co-reg AM admit or bring this up.

and that ALWAYS makes me eager to work with them... NOT!


12-13-2011 11:29 AM #18 clickright ()

Quote Originally Posted by pbakos92 View Post
Could you give us a little more info on what the people you've talked to in the legal community have said about mobiles? Also, were they just normal lawyers you explained it to, guys involved with the FTC, legal counsel for coreg companies...?
This is a bit extreme but as of this past weekend, subscribing to a mobile offer in Spain now requires a HANDWRITTEN agreement.

This takes Spain from one of the more liberal mobile-offer countries to the most extremely "regulated" countries. In other words, mobile offers are dead in Spain. I know a lot of folks were running SP's spain coreg path and other prize-win mobile offers and trust me, that's 100% gone. Maybe 1 in 10,000 would print, sign, and mail/fax an agreement to subscribe to a $10/week mobile offer, lol.

That being said, I don't think the US will become as extreme but it certainly will NOT last forever so 2012 is probably the last year you can bank with co-reg in any way, shape, or form.


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