Excellent Bayesian A/B Testing Tools to help you pick offers (18)
Excellent Bayesian A/B Testing Tools to help you pick offers
To Start with , I am a newbie, and my path to the green is often plagued by questions like:
Campaign A: Payout $10 per conversion, the campaign has 100 clicks on the LP and no conversions so far.
Campaign B: Payout $2 per conversion, the campaign has 200 clicks on the LP and has one conversions.
If you only has the money to keep one Campaign going?
Which one will you pick ? A Or B?
__________________________________________________ _____________________________
It is actually an A/B Testing questions. but harder than it seems due to the small trial size ( 100/200)
with some research and went through the forum tutorials, I found the excellent resource like Bayesian calculator from peak conversions
but the drawback of peakconversion calculator is it assumes all successes trials has the same payout, so it is useful to pick placements/banners/LPs, but can't really use it to pick offers, or very complicated to do so.
after some more digging, I finally found this Excellent Bayesian A/B Testing calculator by win-vector
To Find out which Campaign is better,
Go the the site, click evaluate campaign, and enter the trials( LP views) , success( Conversions) , and success value(Payouts) accordingly. Voila
It will spit out the magic number:
go back to the Campaign A/B question, in case you are curious:
It shows even though Campaign A has zero conversion, it has small edge(59%, 50% is even odds) over Campaign B to generate higher returns due to high payout ($10 vs $2)
Probably thats the main reason why the successful affiliate advises newbies to start with low payout offer, because you will know the campaign is not worth doing very soon, if the offer is high payout it takes a lot more clicks to confirm it is dead, which will cost your an arm and a leg.
Another good thing about win-vector calculator, It even comes with a youtube short course teach you how to use the calculator and a mini crash course to explain the statistical theory behind it.
That's GREAT! Thank you very much for this find. Really useful.
I'm going to check into the math a bit, and if it looks sound (as it does at the moment) I'll write up a detailed guide and tutorial aimed specifically at affiliates.
Thanks Caurmen! I have followed your many great tutorials and learned a lot, glad to know you find it useful and look forward to the guide !
OMG we've been looking forever for something like this!
Thanks a million times over!
Very much looking forward to caurmen's tutorial!
Amy
Great share, love tools like this.
Originally Posted by edgekaos
Agreed bobliu, definitely need some caution. Bayesian statistic is a bit counter intuitive to me , probably thats why it is so useful. Win-vector video course is great too, for those new to Bayesians & statistics dont miss it. You will get an idea of where those numbers come from.
You are THE man. I had been looking for exactly this.
Extremely useful, thanks for the share!
Application not available .. did they remove it ? :/
Mehdi
Originally Posted by mehdi
This would be a cool tool to have developed as an STM exclusive or maybe we can do a group buy and have one developed if anyone is interested.
The application is hosted on the free tier plan at shinyapps.io which only provides 25 active hours when the application is not idled. Should be back online at the start of the new monthly cycle come July 1.
Originally Posted by greentea
https://github.com/WinVector/CampaignPlanner/
Looks like the app is back online now. I might have been wrong about it being hosted on the free tier then.
Cool. John Mount PhD, the creator of the campaign planner is the co-author of Practical Data Science with R. He also has a udemy course.
https://www.amazon.com/Practical-Dat...data+science+r
Thanks for the share!
Looking forward to Caurmen's guide as well!
What are you guys using for the Target Value per Action? Also is anybody using the "Plan Campaign" feature and not just the "Evaluate" feature?
It looks like this app is down again! It probably hit it hours limits for the free tier on ShinyApps.
Does anyone know of an alternate hosted version? Or will I need to figure out how to deploy RStudio projects myself?
UPDATE:
I figured out how to deploy the code, but it looks like the git repo is for the older "v1" version. It still works, but it's not as nice as the newer version. You can find it here:
https://affiliatetools.shinyapps.io/campaignplanner/
This is the repo I cloned:
https://github.com/WinVector/CampaignPlanner
I'll keep digging, but if anyone has access to the V3 code, please send me the link, and I'll make a mirror of that app!
Originally Posted by chris_climbs
Does anyone know of an alternate hosted version? Or will I need to figure out how to deploy RStudio projects myself?
UPDATE:
I figured out how to deploy the code, but it looks like the git repo is for the older "v1" version. It still works, but it's not as nice as the newer version. You can find it here:
https://affiliatetools.shinyapps.io/campaignplanner/
This is the repo I cloned:
https://github.com/WinVector/CampaignPlanner
I'll keep digging, but if anyone has access to the V3 code, please send me the link, and I'll make a mirror of that app!
Muchos gracias + RESPEKT!!!!!
Amy
Home > General > Affiliate Marketing Forum