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How many clicks before you decide to drop the test? (7)

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Hi,

New here. I have a camp making xxx/day already, now looking to add another campaign in the portfolio.

I got this setup:

1 - Setup a campaign in Popads:
Targeted specific carrier, specific os, based on the previous campaign that's making me profit. Same GEO also.
I guess I just want to have as many constants as possible.

2 - Got 3 landers ranging from compliant to super aggressive (this is antivirus sweeps offer), so proven landers I got from other affiliates.

3 - setup two offers at the backend to test, from two networks

3 - Set it to spend $100.

So the campaign has spent ~$40 so far, sent ~300 clicks to each of the offers, and 1 lander had a 49.5% clickthrough rate (the really aggressive one) but zero conversions.

Would you scrap it and try other offers or would you wait for it to spend all the cash? I've had the campaign for almost 24 hours. Thanks for your feedback!

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Hi and welcome on STM

What's the payout for the offer? If it's $2 then $40 spent without conversions is a lot, if it's more like $10 then you could keep running a bit longer.

First when something like this happens check if everything works - any issues with the offers , is it converting for others , what could I've done differently then those affiliates , is the postback working , what else could I've done wrong that would result in 0 conversions.

If all is checked and looks good , then I'd test more landers / offers , once something spends around 10 times payout with 0 conversions in a new GEO I would try something else. Usually even with less times payout, if you have knowledge in the GEO/vertical already and can judge it better.

Edit: Is this a different offer / vertical than your previous XXX/day campaign? Then it could work better for different carriers/OS so you should consider going broader first to see what converts best. It happens that different carriers for example convert very differently for offer A vs. offer B (tip: then send carriers via rules in your tracker to the carriers they convert best for = higher ROI)

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I did ask my AM and he said someone is running this offer in my targeted geo and it's converting, so that's why I decided to test it. I've paused the previous campaign and created a new one testing a different carrier this time. And no this isn't the same vertical as the xxx per day campaign, that one is sweepstakes, this is antivirus, but both mobile. Thanks for your help, man.

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You're welcome

If you're running landers that show up on the spy tools and have received a good amount of traffic , for example the google style lander you see everywhere , then they should be converting at least a little - if they do not at all it's usually the offer that does not convert.

It's also a good idea to look up the funnel URLs in spy tools to see which offers from which networks other affiliates are promoting. Especially when your're just getting started in a new vertical.

You can also ask your AM for more details , maybe you can find out how many conversions are being generated for this offer daily , and how many for other AV offers in this GEO - them saying it's converting is very vague.

Edit: Since it's pops , also consider bot traffic placements , but since you've already been running in the GEO I guess you already have a blacklist

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Hey buddy,

We generally ask our AMs what the network EPC is and do a reverse calculation to get a rough expected conversion rate and from there we calculate a budget to allocate to tests.
The reason being that we don't believe in general rules (eg. 2x, 3x payout), but rather prefer to treat campaigns on a case by case basis.

For example:

EPC is $0.13 and the payout is $3.00.

***Bear in mind, that network EPC's are derived from a variety of different affiliates running different traffic sources.

*****So in saying that, it's also important to ask your AM what type of traffic source the offer is doing volume on and to make sure that it aligns with yours.

EPC = Payout / Number of Clicks
0.13 = 3.00 / Number of Clicks
Therefore, the average number of clicks to get a conversion = 23

What this means to us is that, for every 23 clicks there is a chance of a conversion happening.
Typically, I'll allow 10 chances per variable (variable = landing page, traffic network, etc)

The number of chances you allow is up to you and may be subject to how confident you feel about the campaign.
I say 10 because I want to factor in statistical significance.

Now I'm working with a traffic source + GEO with a $4 CPM and my landing page gets a 10% CTR.
This means that the cost of a click on this traffic source with my landing page = $0.04

At $0.04/click, 23 clicks will cost us $0.92
So, 1 chance of conversion = $0.92

Next, I will be testing 5 landers that I ripped from my spying adventures.
5 landers x 10 chances x $0.92 = $46.00

Round it up to $50 and set that as my budget for that campaign on that traffic network and set the budget to evenly distribute throughout the day.
After the $50 is spent we'll re-evaluate the campaign and decide where to go from there.

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Thanks guys. I'd like to ask another piece of advice. The camp that's making me xxx profit is now under attack. I don't know how to protect my landers so it's inevitable that people will steal them and flood my traffic source with bids. This happened before in Popads, now I've ported the campaign to Propeller Ads, which has more traffic, hence xxx per day. But now I see the traffic going down. I guess the competition is catching on and I need to bid higher or port to more sources.

I'm having a hard time getting traffic sources to accept me which is weird, since I include a screenshot of my earnings in the application, but whatever I'll just keep trying.

I asked for a pay bump from my AM but the most he could give me is a 20% bump. My ROI is around 100-150%, so I guess there's some room to increase the bids. But how much to increase the bids? How do I calculate that? What formula do I use?

Also, I've heard of people doing direct buys. How does that work? Can I negotiate to buy all of the traffic in the network if I have the cash flow? I'm new to all this so I'm a tad overwhelmed.. thanks for you input, guys this place is really the bomb!

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Double check and make sure all the landers are working right
Double check and make sure the offers are working right
Pause any site id's that are obviously horrible, ie. no clicks..
Then spend like 4-5x the amount of the payout on each site id
If you have spend $200ish and no conversions the offer is probably a dud

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