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Ad blockers, iOS9, and why ad prices are about to get very expensive (1)

09-17-2015 08:22 PM #1 affidavid (Member)
Ad blockers, iOS9, and why ad prices are about to get very expensive

I work at a large publisher, and this is making the rounds internally:

https://stratechery.com/2015/popping...ishing-bubble/

tl;dr - Websites suck and ad blockers will become mainstream. Niche publishers move towards subscription & native ad models, while broad publishers will slowly see their content move to platforms (e.g. Facebook Instant Articles). Ad $ will flow accordingly.

Just like the imminent death of Flash, Apple is accelerating this process. In fact, it's already starting:
http://techcrunch.com/2015/09/17/a-d...the-app-store/


So what does this mean?

My two cents:

  1. Banner ad inventory will drop, and it will be harder to scale campaigns.
  2. Publishers will panic and put up more ads/paywalls in an attempt recoup lost revenue (already happening). This will make the web experience even worse and drive more users to adopt ad blockers, accelerating the process.
  3. Non-banner ads (and maybe banner ads too) will get a lot more expensive. Assuming Facebook and other platforms continue to prioritize user experience (or they risk losing their user base), they will maintain a tight control on how many ads users see. Constrained supply + growing demand = increased price for ads


Counterpoints include increased time spent online and more mobile users in developing countries, but I don't think that will reverse the tide (especially in developed countries with already high penetration).

So, how quickly will this happen?
I think it will be relatively quick (2-3 years, if that) before we start really feeling it. Ad blockers will be marketed to users as (bonus angles below!):
  1. Free
  2. Better, cleaner user experience
  3. Faster page loads (especially in places with slow connections)
  4. Reducing drain on your mobile battery (by not loading ads)
  5. Reducing your data costs (increasingly important as ISPs adopt more tiers/caps)


I just downloaded one called 1Blocker. It's SO easy to use. Why would anyone NOT use them?

(Note: Any rebuttals/critiques are welcome. I've been thinking about this for a while and would love to hear everyone's thoughts!)

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