There's bad news, and then there's very good news on this topic.
How Long Will It Take?
First, the bad news: virtually no-one makes money from Affiliate Marketing (AM) overnight. For most people, it will take a few months, maybe as much as a year, and 20+ campaigns before they see their first steady profits from AM.
Before that time you will make some money, but less than you are spending on the traffic.
That's a normal part of Affiliate Marketing, and everyone, including the many STM members who make $x,xxx or $xx,xxx a day from AM, went through that process.
It is also possible that you'll see some days of profit and then loss again before you eventually reach steady profits. Again, that's very normal and a lot of us have been through that experience.
Stick with it and you'll get to solid profits in the end.
The most important component of an AM career is determination!
How Much Money Can I Make?
At the lower levels of success in AM, you can earn enough to replace a full-time job. $xxx / day earnings are very normal (by which I mean earnings between $100 and $999 a day).
Remember, however, that AM can be quite unstable - so if you're earning that much in the early stages, don't spend all of it unless you have another income! Your campaigns may die off again.
Once you reach that stage, you should work on scaling and diversifying your campaigns.
Beyond that point, many successful affiliates reach $x,xxx a day earnings on a semi-stable basis.
A significant number of affiliates get beyond that, to $xx,xxx a day - $10,000 a day or more.
Here are a few success stories from people who have made it to those levels - four or five figures a day:
Sorry, I meant to ask how much time (per day).
Just my 2 cents... this is not directed at anyone in particular -- I just felt that it was appropriate guidance to make sure you have the right mindset when you're starting:
Your time is much better spent gameplanning for what you're going to do when the "brilliant" ideas you have fail after you launch a few campaigns and you get discouraged and a little voice inside says you should probably just move on from this to the next new shiny thing.
Far too many newbies undertake AM these days as some sort of trivial side hobby where they think they can just tinker around a bit and then suddenly become wealthy.
Caurmen already provided a great resource in letting you know what the upside revenue potential is per day, in my opinion -- anyone whose focus is spent on bargaining to try to spend the least amount of time/effort possible in order to break into a new venture or market that they want the benefits of has the exact type of personality that will most easily give up and fail at this and every other non-salaried position in life.
Do you think that anyone who is at the top of any field got there by asking what's the least amount of work he can do in order to succeed? Can you imagine Michael Jordan negotiating with his coach on the minimum amount of games he can play and still get paid?
If you want to be paid like one of the top people in ANY field, you need to at the minimum be putting in time and effort equal to your competition... especially if some of your competition is naturally more talented than you and actually enjoys doing it all day long.
If you've already made the mental calculations that certain amount of profit a month is worth it to you, and that profit amount is within the parameters of what Caurmen said above, then the amount of time it takes you to get there should be a moot point.
^^ Game, set, match.
Couldn't of said it any better!
@blackstar - It varies for everyone depending on how fast you work. You'll need to put a significant amount of time into it - theoretical minimum is probably around 2 hours a day at a rough guess, although different people distribute it in different ways. The important thing is that you're using your time as effectively as possible: 2 hours hardcore research and campaign launching will beat 8 hours' faffing around every time.
The answer is: unlimited. It 100% depends on yourself, your business model, campaign planning strategy and the hard work you're going to put in.
As with everything you need to be supermotivated and eager to do it, and never give up. Always keep on learning, testing and growing (your numbers) meanwhile.
The AM world is a roller coaster ............... Ive had 10k -20k -30k -40k -50k days followed by 500 days and break even days and loosing days.
Too many affiliates focus on only testing, whereas you shouldnt forget that pumping volume is equally important.
Once you start the pump big volumes you come on the radar of the advertiser/network and you'll be in the position to ask/negotiate for higher pay outs - which they will give to you if they have the possibility to do so.
Some pretty interesting thoughts in this thread. 
I wanted to share a small opinion as well: Many people that ask 'How long it will take me to reach X?' are often in the wrong frame of mind for an industry as unpredictable as affiliate marketing. Come to think of it, every entrepreneurial venture is much more unpredictable that people would think and like it to be. So, trying to figure out 'how long it will take you' is not a great question to ask; instead you should just go all in for whatever it is you do, in this case affiliate marketing. You waste time trying to 'predict' outcomes. You will always have to act on the spot for many things anyway, embrace the randomness and unpredictability! 
Probably this question has been done to death But just wanted to know how much more difficult the process becomes if one sticks with
a. No Adult
b. No deceptive offers promotion (think rebills, sweepstakes, diet ,muscle etc)
Out of 100 that net x,xxx/day consistently , how many do you think run completely white and compliant ? (Both legally and morally
)
Just wanted to know the probability of making it big when you are pitted against unfair competition from other non-compliant campaigns.
I have been running completely white (well Almost
),for past one year but couldn't' get to that elusive x,xxx/day figure anytime.
Hence Hustle ON? or Move ON? is the question..
@stekoh - I do mean that sort of research, but I also mean researching the industry as a whole. Learning copywriting techniques, learning design techniques, learning the stats, the math, the technology, how the industry works, etc.
Also, researching how other people have hit success in the past - @kowisoft has explained that process well above.
You can definitely research a totally new offer. Look at its competition. Look at how they're advertised. Look into the demographic the offer targets, what they want, what they're worried about, and where they hang out. Look at what the offer's promising, what press it's had, and so on.
@mobsprout - it depends what your own personal moral code is, but there are some really big affiliates and affiliate groups (considerably beyond $x,xxx a day) out there running what I'd consider completely white-hat. There are a lot of affiliate niches you can target in the world, many of them completely white-hat, particularly if you go off the beaten path a bit...
One thing so far unmentioned which is important to beginners:
Care about profit, don't limit your view to ROI. ROI hasn't paid any bills for any single affiliate yet. Think twice, what's better... a campaign spending 500/day with a 50%ROI or 5k a day with 20% ROI.
@mobsprout: I found that spying, especially on wrw or other spying services, you see what is common and what worked, not what is really working now. I could be mistaken about them but I also found that they don't show in-app ads. I havent used them enough to tell, since, just like you, I found them to not be so useful. Manual spying is better though. There you will also see a better ratio of whitehat vs blackhat. As for $x,xxx/day possible when running white hat, I am pretty sure it's possible; I can't show that result myself yet, but hope to be able to in a few weeks 
In addition to what manu said, I would advice to take spying, whether with services like wrw or manually, as a source of inspiration. Not less and not more. I have had a month of WRW and I cancel it because for me personally it limits my creativity... so everyone has to decide for themselves... just my 0.02 as a noob though...
How can you know how much work others put in? I think it's natural to always assume others have it easier/work less than ourselves. Both those who run white hat and black hat work more than most people can imagine. In terms of white vs black: what would you deem black hat? There are advertisers who have more lenient conditions and those who have stricter. You can make a lot of money if you run compliant campaigns only but the degree of compliance will vary across offers. What is 'white hat' for one can be clearly 'black' for another.
There's too much debate on how to make it easier, make it quicker in my opinion. Just work your ass off 24/7 for a few months and you'll know what can work, what is for you, what you definitely don't want to do, etc. 
Hey Blackstar,
I thought it may help to give you some input on this one.
I started giving affiliate marketing proper attention and dedication a year ago (October, 2014). There was a solid 6 months of struggle and losing money, using credit cards and taking loans, etc. I finally broke through and started making $600/$750 per day consistent about 9 months in after getting sick of waiting for people to respond to my questions and just using Tony Robbins "well if knew what to do, I would..." theory.
The amount of time I devoted to making money online and breaking through to success is a consistent 10/14 hours per day. I still spend a ton of time on campaigns and on my business but a little bit less (8/9 hours). I work a full time job and run my business around it and during my time at work using a tablet/phone or the work computer. So, below is a rough idea of what my day looks like:
7:00 AM - Wake up.
7:05 AM - Scratch my nuts and think of the day ahead (lol somewhat of a routine).
7:30 AM - Get into my home office or pick up the laptop from my bedside and start working.
9:45 AM - Stop working & get ready for my day job.
10:30 AM - 7:00 PM Get to work and check on stats, try and optimize between tasks on my cell or tablet computer.
7:30 PM - Get home from work and get on the computer until dinner is ready or cook (depending on the day).
8:30/9:00 PM - After dinner get back on the computer and set up campaigns, register for networks, think of angles, analyze the day before, optimize, etc.
1/2/3 AM - Get into bed and start making a checklist of things to do the following day, take note of angles that come to mind, think of what I want from AM, create a set goal and vision of what I want & at some point while imagining standing on my balcony with my wife, sipping on nice red wine over looking the ocean from our villa in Crete, I fall asleep.
The above is a rough idea of how my day goes and of course it varies. However, that is fairly accurate and the amount of time you spend working on your business is the amount of rewards you are going to get out of it. Also, you have to enjoy it and make it an obsession. Making your work an obsession and priority was a must for me and would recommend anyone to set a specific outcome when getting into the AM game.
I hope the above helps.
-Kunteya
I have read on the web (blogs) that possibilities of success in AM are really low (something like under 5% of all affiliates). Is that true or AM is something like "do "x" and you'll get "y"?
Anyway I guess that those statistics are about that AM where you choose a merchant's product and set up website and/or newsletter and also through SEO start promoting rather than our strategy with traffic sources and large AN offer choice.
What can you tell me about it?
@davidep - Affiliate marketing is a numbers game. The chances of any single campaign working are comparatively low, and there's also a fairly large skill element that diminishes your chances at the start until you have some experience.
If you just look at the numbers of people who start trying to do paid traffic AM, the 5% figure is probably about right. That's because most people either give up or fail to learn effectively (then give up). You'd be amazed how many people give up very early in any business venture - AM, blogging, infoproducts, SAAS, whatever.
The most important component of an affiliate marketing career is determination. Affiliate marketers don't fail - they give up.
(Which is not to say that there aren't sometimes good reasons to stop for a while. Do not risk money you cannot afford to lose. Affiliate marketing isn't going anywhere - if you need to go away and raise some more funds, or indeed if your life changes such that affiliate marketing doesn't fit your goals any more, stopping until circumstances change is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. )
And there you have it, the chronic failures make everything look more complicated and unreachable than it is.
Thank you very much guys! I have always known that determination is the key to success, just wanted to know how much those statistics could be true. 
Anyway, talking about AM types, don't you think that those like Amazon's program or those where you create a website, newsletter, massive seo campaign, etc in one niche for a product are the hardest type?
@davidep - Depends. Amazon's affiliate program is arguably the easiest way to make SOME money if you already have a way to push traffic or a highly specialised source of visitors. The issue with it is that the returns are terrible for any kind of paid traffic method. But if you happen, say, to be known for recommending the best electronic goods, and lots of people come to you immediately before a purchase, it's a very easy way to make money.
(And it's far easier to get into that position than you might think.)
Authority site-based affiliate marketing isn't really harder or easier, just different. It requires more on-the-ground work writing, but it also has a higher success rate if you know what you're doing than any single AM campaign. However, returns tend to be capped lower too: a good authority site might make $50,000 a month, but a really big paid traffic campaign can make that a day.
On the other other hand, it's also much more stable. An authority site that has gotten up to $50,000 a month will often sustain that for years, and it can be sold for a multiple of that figure. A $50k/day AM campaign might only last a week.
The secret of Affiliate Marketing as a whole is this: it all works. SEO-based approaches, authority site approaches, social approaches, viral approaches, paid traffic approaches, list-based approaches - there's people making bank in all of them. They all have advantages and disadvantages, and they all require different skillsets, and their exact level of difficulty varies over time, but they can all work.
[Pinky to mouth] one..... MILLION dollars!!!
Hi guys, in the past few weeks I've been reading a lot here. Definitely a lot of info to digest. I wanted to hear your thoughts about the way I like to start my affiliate marketing career.
I'm currently working as a sales rep 5 days a week 9 hours a day, so I'm limited in time at least at the beginning. I have a budget of about 5K to start with. (I'm starting AM with a friend that I've met in a PPC course, both of us have an experience in AdWords and FB but no experience with other traffic sources like Avazu etc) I thought about focusing on mobile traffic or Facebook, still not sure on the vertical. I will start using a spy tool in a week or so and I think I will get a better idea about the vertical I want to take.
1. Starting out with 5K will be ok? It's not too low? Paying for tools & traffic.
2. I have some experience with the Forex/binary market, will it be a good vertical to start with 5K or is it too low?
3. Dedicating about 3 hours a day will be ok at the beginning?
4. Any other insights/thoughts will be great.
Thanks.
P.S
I'm not looking to get rich with 5K, I'm planning to work with this amount for about 2-3 months, studying and improving, after those 2-3 months I'm planning to continue with much more practical knowledge and also a bit more money (5-7k if required).
@razibsh - 5k budget should be fine, as should your time budget.
I don't know the binary market too well, but I believe the payouts are quite high, which makes it a less than ideal choice to start with. I'd probably recommend starting with something well-understood like PIN submits.
Given the time you're starting this, have you considered taking the Affiliate Mastery Challenge? It's a really good intro to AM.
(However, if someone with more knowledge of the binaries world wants to chip in here, I'll defer to them.)
Love this thread.
Just wanted to add a little from an SEO\YouTube or any "Free traffic" type approach (this is what I have most of my experience with - little experience with paid traffic but trying to change that!).
I've always found that projects that I care about are the ones that do best. Niches that I am passionate about, or selling products that I believe in.
For example, electronic cigarettes helped me quit smoking so I believe in them. So any project that had to do with electronic cigarettes I always crushed those - and I still have sites that do very well in that niche.
Currently have a project with a YouTube approach and it's a topic that I'm SUPER passionate about...and it's taking off because I stay on top of it and I put my all into it. I actually enjoy working on that project.
Most of my failures have come in niches that I could care less about...where I'm just after the money.
Not sure if this is the same with paid traffic or not...but for me it has definitely been the case with SEO\YouTube related projects (which take time and patience to build up).
Something to think about!
Good to know matuloo, thank you.