If SmartCPM gets to Expensive, Bid Manual CPM??? (3)
If I have to keep increasing my Smart CPM to get a higher perecentage of wins, and the SMART CPM gets higher than my payout, am I better to bid manual CPM at that point?
Yep, sometimes SmartCPM goes over your target so the best bet is bidding manual CPM.
I guess it depends on the traffic source - assuming you are talking about Decisive, it does not matter at all if your Smart CPM is higher than your payout.
Smart CPM is great for lower payout offers, and to test a lot of different placements and even those which have got a high CPM cost but might performs so much better that they turn out profitable 
What I usually do on Decisive is just start off slightly below the country average from the planner, let it run for 10 minutes, watch, increase a little bit, let it run, see what happens to the traffic you get, increase or adjust however you want.. Just play around with it a bit and you'll get a good feeling for it
CPM seems to be better for high payout offers (I have no first hand experience of that) and if you target single placements for all kinds of payout offers.
edit: bbrock probably knows this better than me haha. I'm only talking about Decisive, tested this in-depth for a long time, and got good results even bidding 2 times the payout with Smart CPM option for low payout offers. It depends very much on the GEO, in some you can get good traffic volume with $0.16 Smart CPM bid, others you have to go up to almost $1 ..
If you mean that you bid Smart CPM and the actual CPA in the stats gets up too high, yeah you can use manual CPM to get this lower
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