Here's my SEO competition stats from Market Samurai. This is the data from the current top 10 sites..
Is this a keyword that's going to take me years to rank for? Or do you think it's possible to grab a first page position within a year?
I'm thinking of using a brand new site with great content...

To be honest, I never thought MS's keyword competition tool (or any other software) does a good job. I look at the sites in the top 10 manually.
If you like, PM me the keyword and I'll take a look. Don't worry about me stealing your niche. Trust me, I'm saturated. 
I find Long Tail Pro's KC value very accurate.