what % of trials will convert on avg (4)
just started experimenting in the adult niche today,
have a bunch of visitors that put in credit cards for free trials that will autobill them in a few days unless they manually cancel. i get paid if they get billed.
im just wondering if there is an "estimated" average of these that will usually convert to $$$.. its tough to gauge if im running profitable or not until they do or do not get billed.. im hoping that at least some do
What are you running? I'm going to assume M/E
Here's what you can expect:
Day 1: 100 - $4.95 postage
Day 14: 50 of those will successfully rebill - $69.95
Day 30: 20 will make to the second cycle - $69.95 + $4.95
Day 60: 10ish will make it to this point.
Most offer owners will try and break even at the 14 day mark, then profit on the 30 day+ mark.
If you notice, at day 14 it's $75 at 50% of sign ups = $37.5 (roughly the commission paid to an affiliate)
Note: Your biggest, biggest, biggest problem will be the rebills. The majority of the credit cards will be declined.
Originally Posted by adivity
thanks for the reply, but its for adult offers, not standard trials/rebills. so there is no postage etc..
its just that the visitor signs up for free trial of the adult site with CC, but if he doesnt cancel when the trial period is over, will start getting billed.
im wondering how many people actually forget to cancel, etc.. trying to get an estimate if ill be profitable
Originally Posted by gts6
This will really vary based on what site you promote. I can give you some numbers based on the many years I have been pushing revshare, but again, the numbers fluctuate quite a bit.
1. With poor site with shitty members areas, you will only see about 10% rebill rate, majority of them actually forgot about the rebilling, once billed for the first time they realize and cancel or even ask for a chargeback. Only a fraction of them will continue to rebill for more than one month.
2. Decent sites - assuming there is some value for the surfer, some will actually want to stay for longer than just the trial period. Here you can expect up to 20% rebill rate. The rebills will also fall off very fast.
3. Quality sites - expect anything between 20-70% rebill rate from trials to full rebills. 70% is very rare, but I have seen it happen. In this case, the surfers stay for a longer period of time willingly. But still, you will see about 40-50% fall off rate from month to month until only the hardcore fans and those who forget about the rebills stay as members. You will occasionally catch a very long lasting customer - my record was about 65 months of rebills, it wasnt all that rare to get someone rebill for a year or longer. But only in case of really quality sites or hardcore "forgetters"
To give you a safe estimate since I dont know what kind of sites you promote, lets assume its some decent site that actually provides value to the customer - you should see about 25-35% of the trials convert to full monthly memberships, but good half of them will cancel after the first full month. Keep in mind that these are my average numbers Im giving you, it can really fluctuate a lot. I have been promoting sites where only 5% converted from trials to full members, just as I have been pushing one site where there were no trials at all and people were signing up for 3-6 months memberships without any problems and rebilling for years. Right now, the best site I promote on revshare is some video archive and the members stay for more than 6 months on average and I have quite a few who are members for over a year already, but the site has low monthly membership and the initial CVR is rather low.
Over the years I have been pushing both pay per sale and revshare sites and at some point I started to push pay per sale wherever possible from a number of reasons :
1. its secure to get paid right now without having to worry about the future - many adult sites got closed lately.
2. even if rebills work better in some cases, you have to wait a few months to get the same amount as with pay per sale.
3. my long lasting tests showed me that just the best sites can actually make more with rebills, with the average site it was financially better to take the per sale payout instead of waiting for rebills that never came. Lets say a site pays $30 per sale and they have $24.95 monthly fee where you can get 50%. These 50% are usually NET, which means after processing fees, so you are left with about $10 per month. To make more with revshare, the customer would have to rebill for 4 months, which simply wont happen in majority of cases. On the other hand, revshare programs scrub a bit less than PPS ... it all comes down to testing again.
To sum it up, I would only go for revshare in case I am 100% confident that the site Im pushing is of high quality and can actually retain the customer.
Home > Paid Traffic Sources > Adult Traffic (NSFW)