Wetting my Feet in Mobile. Just wanna break even on my $5k budget. (41)
Wetting my Feet in Mobile. Just wanna break even on my $5k budget.
Hi All,
After some encouragement from caurmen, I'm starting off making myself some mobile appetizers. Just applied to decisive (any tips on speeding up the account activation process?) and also put in my application for F5 media.
Once I have my decisive account, I'm going to get a couple campaigns going, and once I have something that's at least partially converting, I'll start writing some software to directly tie into decisive to auto-launch campaigns for me.
I work full time at a wall street bank, and as much as I'd like to play with campaigns from work, I realize it's not the wisest thing to do. So, it will be interesting figuring out ways to overcome the limited amount of time that I can dedicate to mobile marketing.
As for my starting offer:
http://www.freelotto.com/register.asp?skin=7024D
While I'm waiting for decisive, here are a couple things that come to mind.
- I loaded this page on my razr maxx, ascend mate 2, ipod touch, ipad, laptop, and desktop. The webpage pretty much looks the same across all platforms. I'm not so sure that a person would be willing to navigate all those form fields.
- The requirements for this ad seem stringent. There are three pages of forms that need to be filled out.
In terms of angles,
ASDA seems to be a popular grocery chain in the UK and a major competitor to Tesco. Probably is a way to create a 'push' style notification saying they received a coupon from their local ASDA.
The other angle I had in mind is 'Hungry? Get XXX to spend at ASDA'
Just need to figure out the banners and make them fit. I'll be viewing mockups of the banners and fake apps on my mobile devices to help gauge readability.
To me the lander looks like a massive form to expect people to fill out on a mobile device.
Have you asked your AM for converting offers? Is this offer proven?
Also, it would be wise not to post your affiliate links openly as they reveal your affid. Better to post the link to the destination lander. I edited for you.
Originally Posted by zeno
Test it I suppose.
High CVR = what though? 10%? 1%?
I would rarely expect a 10-field form to do well on mobile unless the offer is pre-sold very well or the users have high intent.
Win an iPad! >> 10 field submit = unlikely to convert amazingly.
Couple things to consider.
1. Affiliate managers are sales people told to sell certain things. There's very good ones around that can boost your business hugely and care about your success. 90% are just hucksters that don't know anything and are just telling you to run stuff cause that's what they're supposed to do. Make sure you vet your affiliate manager to make sure they're bringing you value besides just selling you something.
2. Just want to make back my 5k. I think making money is a good thing. But I think it also sets you up for ultimate failure. What if you don't figure it out in 5k and you run out of money. Do you quit? I always look at money as an investment in my education. I'm trading $ for data. The goal should be focused on a daily spend every day until you figure out it out. Build a system that consistent and repeatable. Everyones system in this space is different and many of them are successful. How you frame your mindset for the money you have to invest is much more important then the money itself, in my opinion.
The simple answer @Smaxor is yes--for now. In the unlikely event I blow through that $5k and make none of it back, I would just need to refocus on what has been working for me in the past to rebuild another $5k tuition and start over--smarter and wiser than before. I have credit lines totaling $17k available to me ready to ramp up should the opportunity arise.
The $5,000 budget for me is more a limit against reckless spending than a hard upper limit, something to force me to find ways to maximize the learning (multiple $15/day campaigns vs $4000 tests).
I have other methods that are earning money for me now and are growing fairly independent of me thanks to a very hard working VA and whoever he ended up hiring under him. The problem with this income is it relies on a series of variables that I cannot control which means my money earned is unpredictable at best--think $0 to $1100 earned in a day. Hard to budget against what is fundamentally unpredictable.
That said, I noticed you represent A4D. What do I need to do for you to take me on as a publisher? What are the payout terms? (So I can pay down my credit lines / reinvest profits into campaigns) And do you have sub $1 mobile-friendly campaigns that are performing well?
$5000 is a great budget, you will get a lot of learning happening. But Smax nailed this on, is $5k all you're willing to put into this, you may not make it all back on your first run, but $5000 is a small price to pay for the possibility of what affiliate marketing can bring
Okay, so it's been awhile. Time for an update.
I had my first day of paid traffic on Decisive and frankly: Woah.
I completely changed offers to a money-saving offer on MaxBounty. I spoke with the affiliate manager who advised me that the mobile traffic to the earlier offer I show above isn't converting as well as banner traffic. This one at least converts on an email submit--much simpler.
https://www.savethedeals.com/la/welc...DI_supermarket
I set up a number of banners using my ghetto screenshot method (make the image in keynote, then take a screenshot), and have these banners to show for it.
The hardest part for me in setting up the banners was finding new ideas / angles to use on the traffic.
After uploading the banners and getting the go-ahead from decisive, I threw the switch.
Within seconds, I blew through two campaigns' day budgets and I realized it might be a good idea to turn on the brakes for tomorrow's spend.
A major concern is that none of the traffic from decisive is showing up in Maxbounty. [EDIT]: IT turns out I was using Canadian Traffic for an Australia offer Doh!
Considering my noob moment, I edited the limits so that each campaign gets $8 of australian spend.
Clicks are hovering in the 0.6-0.9% range. Not sure if that's good/bad.
So after day 1, it has cost me ~$20 and have yet to get one conversion. This is going to be interesting to say the least.
Heh, it's easy to make mistakes like that when you're new - but I bet you won't make it again.
$20 spend to learn a valuable lesson is pretty good value in my book!
Once the AUS traffic comes in you should start seeing some solid data.
How am I doing in terms of ctr? Campaigns range from 0.49-1.02
Others seem to aim at above 0.1%, everything else they suggest to kill. So 0.49-1.02 seems to be damn good
Before you spend any more money running traffic to those offers please read Smaxor's post again, focusing especially on point #1!!!!!!! And when you're done with that go read the rest of his posts because they're all gold!
Now that you've done that I'll lay it out for you because I'd hate for you to waste $5,000.00 based on the recommendation of someone who barely has any idea of what mobile traffic is, and hasn't spent one penny of their own money running mobile traffic, and whose employer isn't even considered a small player in the world of "mobile" CPA networks. Maxbounty is a great network, and Free Lotto is actually a decent offer with rock solid EPCs, IF you have very very cheap display and/or popup/popunder traffic; or better yet redirect traffic. I know because I ran quite a bit of traffic to that offer in the last few years, with Maxbounty I might add! For mobile on the other hand you'd better look for some other offers because you're going to have a very hard time getting those ones profitable, especially in the available GEOs, which have the highest click costs and competition. Yup that $.15 network EPC looks awesome, but after looking at some special data I'd be willing to bet my left nut that it's not from affiliate mobile traffic 
Also keep this in mind about offers: "accepts mobile traffic" ≠ "good mobile offer" and if you ask your AM for their recommendations on good mobile offers and they give you a list of offers that are obviously being run via web traffic then I suggest you delete them from your Skype and demand to work with somebody who knows wtf they're talking about.
Last tip: if you want to focus on mobile then work with networks that have a good selection of mobile offers. If other affiliates are KILLING IT with certain offers then shouldn't you be running those as well? Or at least have the option to? If you're on limited budget and can't spread your money around then stick with one or two networks at first. I'd suggest F5 and Avazu as they have tons of mobile offers that actually CONVERT, including most of the big ones, and are on the forums so they're probably friendly to accepting applicants with limited experience. Then down the road add in ClickDealer, Mundo, etc....
@zeroonedigital
I actually switched offers: https://www.savethedeals.com/la/welc...DI_supermarket
I dug back into the arbitrage conspiracy training to see what Aymen and Emmanuel taught when it comes to offer selection.
As for this new offer, it appears that I'm getting plenty of clicks, but no conversions. I'm a bit surprised that 500 clicks => no conversions.
So, before I try a second angle, I have a question for the STM community.
How do I test that this offer is correctly registering my conversions? Do I just get a VPN in the correct GEO and run through the offer?
As for a second angle, any recommendations? I'm not entirely sure how to twist a coupon/voucher.
Overall CTR ranges from 0.67% to 0.93%. Not sure how I fare, but I figure that's pretty good considering my effective cpc is $0.04 to $0.08.
For testing, yes. Private browser mode, VPN, use affiliate link, go through conversion process.
If you've gotten that many clicks but no conversions, I'd probably try a different offer. Obviously test your flow first, as you suggest, but if the flow seems to work and the offer ain't converting for your campaign, move on.
This is something that a lot of newer affiliates seem to have problems with: finding the right offer for your traffic source is 80% of the battle.
Don't just stick with one offer in your testing, and if an offer doesn't work, don't worry about it too much. Test widely, and find something that converts at least a bit.
Once you have an offer that you know converts, that's the time to focus - drive your ROI from -30% to +90% or similar. But before that, don't spend ages trying to flog a dead horse - if the horse ain't moving (no conversions) you're better off moving to one that might still be alive.
As for angles on vouchers: what does the voucher mean to your audience? Is it "buy a luxury you might not otherwise get?" Is it "Treat your family to a slap-up meal"? Is it "save some cash"? All of these are separate angles. Don't focus on the offer, focus on what it means to the people converting.
Stop focusing on CTR.
I personally almost never look at it, unless we are buying solely on a CPM basis (which we do less and less).
Focus instead on conversions, CVR and cost per conversion.
If you have a 0% CVR, but high CTR, then congratulations, that just means you lost more money. And the higher the CTR, the more money you will continue to lose.
So MaxBounty mobile offers seem to be a bust. The savethedeals offer I was working on earlier went through two days of testing and 500 clicks with 0 conversions.
I ran a test against the offer using an australian proxy and it appears that my traffic never sees the savethedeals page. They're redirected to some "Free Costco Gift Card" offer. And I'm thinking WTF. I sent an email to my affiliate manager with screenshots and redirect data. We'll see what happens. I have growing suspicions that the offer is less than honest. Anyway, moving on...
I sent an email to Zack at F5 looking for more offers in Australia and Canada. Both GEOs where I can get fairly high CTRs for cheap. I've also filed an application with Avazu and am looking forward to hearing from their affiliate managers.
Not the best of starts, but it's definitely better than nothing.
Definitely apply to some more networks too. More networks mean more offers mean better offers!
Okay,
I'm pretty sure I'm good at getting clicks, this time in New Zealand for a similar if less believable offer. http://www.kiwi-rewards.com/cgi-bin/...ostback=#ACID#
The second round shows 0.63-1.6% CTR, but no conversions with 168 clicks. Haven't spent $15 yet, so I'll let this run one more day. Not looking very promising either way. Also, it appears that while the traffic is fairly cheap, the quantity in New Zealand is lacking, so scaling up may become a problem.
I know I have my /one/ conversion that was created by my proxy test. So the offer definitely works. Next up to change in the coming day will have to be my angle. So instead of save $1000, probably worth focusing on "Get Free Food" or "Throw a party" or "Fill your Fridge" Something that refocuses away from the money.
So I finally did it!
I have conversions!!!
So my first conversion cost me $85.49, took two campaigns, and each two angles to get it. Now comes the interesting part--if there are enough conversions to justify trying to optimize.
As I recall from the Appetiser, I need at least $7 in conversions coming from one campaign. So, here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to start pruning the stuff that has not given me conversions (banners primarily) and see if the concentrated budget can generate me more conversions.
Huzzah!
The first conversion is, in many ways, the hardest. Looking forward to your next update.
It's now been 7 conversions. Things are starting to look up.
What I've interestingly noticed is that Wifi converts terribly, eating up almost 70% of my budget. We'll see how tomorrow's spend fares with the new wifi restriction.
I've also seen that app traffic doesn't convert at all. It's just the site traffic that converts. Interesting results to say the least. I'm very surprised this is the case.
Total spend on these campaigns so far is $49.79 and total spend in all is $105.30 (because of the previous campaign that didn't convert at all)
One of the campaigns for this latest offer is showing profit on the day. A little more optimization and I should have my first overall profitable day very soon. Ohh this is getting exciting.
Congrats! Sounding good!
So another day has come and gone, and I guess there isn't a lot of non-wifi inventory as the average campaign spend was < $5. Still waiting for that magical $15 so I can restart the pruning process.
Got another 3 conversions today ($3 rev) in exchange for $10.41 in spend. A bit disappointed, but we'll see if the overall conversion increases the closer I get to $15.
In the meantime, I'm looking around for another offer to add to my little stable. I have a couple banners set up and ready to go, once the current banners lose their charm. I will say this, some of my best performing banners are butt ugly.
[Edit] Some common sense eluded me for a bit. New Zealand is on the other side of the world from me. So my expectation is that more conversions will come during my night time.
^^ There is a tonne of non wifi traffic out there, it's just at a higher price.
^^^ In decisive, do I get a chance to bid on every impression? Or do I not participate in some impression auctions?
You should see some of mine. Holy crap.
Or, more accurately, "Highly-Performing Crap".
Originally Posted by jennatalia
Originally Posted by keepthecar
My thing with ctr is knowing what the 'usual' range is for this sort of campaign.
If my ctr is lower than average, then it should be fairly easy--with a new angle, or better copying--to raise my ctr and lower my cpc.
If my ctr is above average, then that tells me the amount of work necessary to lower my cpc is significantly higher and may not be worth the time investment vs dumping the campaign and going a completely different route.
What I find a bit too frustrating at the moment is that the amount of traffic that I'm getting to the offer is not hitting my $8/day spending limit. Which to me suggests the amount of traffic available at the price I'm willing to pay is just not there. This is arguably one of the caveats of smaller payouts--the potential to scale on the same traffic source is not always there.
There is another campaign for this exact offer that is targeted to a different cheaper country on decisive that has about triple the available traffic inventory. Once I have a couple more optimizations done with this current campaign so I'm at least break even on the spend, I'll copy the whole works to the other country. In theory this should give me a head start on which banners ultimately give me the better payouts.
Originally Posted by jennatalia
I could be wrong though - the number of auctions you enter could be throttled by your budget.
Those CTRs are a bit on the low side for a smaller geo in Decisive. I'd generally look more for the 1%+ CTRs, even as high as 4% sometimes.
Depends on the angle, demo, targeting, though.
Budget definitely plays a role in what impressions you get a chance to target, particularly daily budget. If you're having trouble with volume, play with that first.
So I'm at the point where I'm using statistics to objectively determine what should stay and what should go.
So I ended up writing my own AB-B1-B2-Bn calculator.
I've already eliminated half my banners for having a low z-score and confidence.
Spend today was $10.41 for $8 in rev. So it's just a simple matter of rinsing and repeating the optimization cycle to get the ultimate results I'm looking for.
Originally Posted by jennatalia
What statistical basis are you using for that calculator? All else being equal, I'd usually recommend using a Bayesian route over the classical approaches like Chi-Squared etc.
Nice share, though - and a very good format.
Wetting my Feet in Mobile. Just wanna break even on my $5k budget.
I am going the Bayesian route. The main thing I'm relying on the the calculator for is to identify the bad campaigns vs trying to figure out which campaign is the best.
From my vantage point, the best campaigns are the ones that are turning a profit. As long as the CPA is less than my revenue. Now, it's possible I haven't reached the end of the campaign cycle yet, nor do I have a large enough roi spread (I'm targeting 40%) to start scaling up.
Im of the opinion that decisive is not quite ready or more likely unwilling to meet my daily budget. I sent an email to my contact there and hope to have a response.
I have two campaigns now whose CPA is less than my payout, with an roi of 29% and 1%
The problem is the higher roi campaign has far fewer clicks than the lower roi campaign. So I'm thinking max out my budget against the higher roi and any excess money left over goes to the lower roi. After all, money sitting around is losing value primarily due to inflation. I'd rather be earning 1% against my money than nothing.
I've also noticed that all of my conversions tend to happen in the evening my time. As an absolute last resort, I'm going to end up having campaigns deactivated outside certain hours. I have the time stamps of every conversion, so it shouldn't be too difficult to first isolate those times, and then back out testing an hour at a time to determine what is profitable for this campaign.
So today, my campaigns took a huge step backwards--and I think I know why.
1 Conversion on 200+ clicks. Except, all of this traffic happened during the new zealand night time. Furthermore, the CTR almost doubled to 1.4%-2.8% range. I have an idea of what is converting well banner wise and what isn't. Sooo
I went through my conversion log and took note of every hour during which I had conversions. I've reduced the available hours to the ones where I have already received conversions, and I'm upping today's spend for each campaign to see if my theory is correct.
If it turns out that the hours that I'm converting are correct, I'll refocus banners for those times.
What time in the night?
Are you thinking bot traffic or just crappy placement(s)?
Around 2 am to 7 am. I get a handful of clicks, and no conversions. My guess it it's people who unintentionally click on the ad.
Okay, this is starting to get extremely frustrating.
After these optimizations, it appears that there is another competitor or something in this space driving up the average CPM. That may explain the reduced traffic. After spending almost $100 in testing this one campaign and getting nowhere fast, I figure I'll try something different. So...
I created a brand new campaign for the same offer in a different country. They're geographically close enough that culture-wise at least the banners should have the same effect. I'll confirm this with more data in a bit.
So the new campaign is showing promise.
I've only spent $7 of the $15 spend and at least one campaign is at -50% roi. Much better than the original country for this offer. Hoping that tomorrow yields a similar if not better result.
I still have the original campaign running, and it looks like there are some elements converting. I'm probably going to just recreate the campaign with only the successful elements to test if they are genuinely performing and get more statically accurate proof.
Good stuff!
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