Aside from the Teespring campaign, I decided to tried some mobile offers at Zeropark and Decisive.
At this moment, I haven't got more than -50% ROI on Decisive, but I wanted to give Zeropark a chance with a low CPC country, so here is my follow along.
Offer: Whatsapp backgrounds and emoticons (ZA)
Converts on: Pin confirmation
Payout: $1.7
Traffic allowed: Email, Banner, PPC, Social PPC, PPV, Popups and popunders, Contextual, Twitter.
Network: Spanish network with Hasoffer.
Direct linking
Went with Zeropark using PPV and popups.
At first I created 2 campaigns with a budget of $8.
One for mobile traffic (WAP version of the offer) and one for desktop traffic (Desktop version).
Went to sleep yesterday and forgot it. Woke up watching 0 conversions at Zeropark, however, when I logged into my affiliate network, I saw 2 conversions on the WAP campaign and fortunately, I was tracking the targets and CID. So...
Day 0:
Spent: $8 on each campaign.
Conversions: 3 on WAP 0 on Desktop
Revenue: $5.1
Profit: $-2.9
So was already above -50% ROI for the WAP campaign alone. That's a good start I guess. The 3 conversions came from a target where there's a lot of traffic available (bought 27 from 4k redirects), which is good.
Today I change the budget to $16 in the WAP campaign and killed the desktop campaign so I could get more info and conversions from different targets.
Here are the results.
Day 1:
Spent: $16
Conversions:7
Revenue: $11.9
Profit: $-4.1
This time I got 6 conversions from other targets (some with high volume and some with low volume) and 1 conversion from the same target as yesterday.
Question:
At this point, what would you recommend me to do?
Would you:
1. Buy more traffic and discover many more targets that are converting so I can create a target campaign?
2. Start killing targets that don't convert (I didn't because Zeropark spreads the budget into so many different targets that none of them has really spent more than $1).
3. Do something else?
i'm direct linking and tracking all my variables with a postback URL directly from Zeropark. No tracking software yet, but I thought it wouldn't hurt as Zeropark has just 4 variables to track. Is my approach correct?
1. Yes
2. Not yet. Try to spend atleast 2x the offer payouts (so $3.4) per target before X'ing them.
3. 1 & 2 for now... then split test more landing pages!
If it's converting at above -50% ROI then why not open the flood gates a little? If the volume is there, spending $50 today will get you places faster than trickling $10/day.
ZeroPark can give you a lot of traffic... so try to balance bid and budget to get a reasonably even flow at a higher spend.
If setting to $50 burns out in 2 hours, lower your bids but be mindful of the fact that some higher quality targets might need higher bids!
Day 2:
Upped the budget to $24 instead of $30 because I didn't have much budget left in my account (will refill today).
My ROI immediately decreased and I think here's why.
Since
But yesterday, I changed the timezone to CST to make it more comfortable for me and went to sleep. That means the traffic would start rolling after midnight or (7am in SouthAfrica).
Hence, when I was about to sleep, I quickly logged in and it had already spent $11 without a single conversion. I stopped it and realized it might have been because of the timezone.
Today at 10am (5pm South Africa) I started it again ($13 still left) and it went trough the resting budget in 30 minutes, which resulted in 2 conversions (better than nothing... but worse than when I run them at 6am (1pm ZA)).
I have gathered at least 10 different converting targets (around 5 with lots of traffic to buy, and some with close to nothing).
I want to gather more data, but what would you recommend me in this case to avoid ROI drop at nightly/early morning hours?
I need to be really careful because the budget gets spent in 1-2 hours max. Or should I definitely lower my bid (0.05 currently)?
Hmm, I'd be cautious about assuming what's going on based on small amounts of data.
I know this might seem a bit alarming, but my recommendation would be to blast $50 or so of data for a few days at the campaign and see what happens. That'll give you a good pile of data to analyse. If you're still seeing a significant ROI drop, you can then analyse why.
Great start...
Keep spending... gather some data.... You could try lowering your bid a bit to get fewer traffic (but that might result in you getting lower quality traffic).
Promising campaign though! 
Yeah it's a real dilemma...
Lower bid >> more even traffic over the day due to low budget, i.e. don't spend it all in several hours.
But, lower bid >> change in traffic distribution >> conversion rate affected.
Ideally, ZP would have a pacing system - perhaps the guys from Codewise will chime in or alternatively contact their support.
It may make sense to a) enable dayparting and restrict it to e.g. 6AM - midnight in X country, use a campaign budget as a cap, lower bid, etc. If anyone knows the best way to get an even smear of traffic on a low budget, it will be the developers.
However, don't be surprised if the best solution is still throwing a higher daily budget at it. IMO, better to get an even distribution on 1 day at $100/spend than get small bursts on separate days, possible in separate time ranges, and try to make sense of that.
Update:
I threw away around $50 yesterday alone.
Got around 4 conversions only.
I want to trow some more to gather at least $200 of data, and i'm suffering with the main problem of losing money LOL. I need to get used to it...
Anyway, today's budget is going to be spent later, but meanwhile, I cloned the campaign and targeted the converting ids I have at this point (10 or 11).
Added just $10 to test and after 1 hour, here are the results.
Spent: $12
Conversions: 7
Revenue: $11.9
Profit: -$0.1
I'm breaking even with those targets at the moment. I ran this campaign at 7pm ZA and ended at 9pm. It took more time now that I'm only bidding with converting targets even if i upped my CPC.
From all those 10 sites, 1 got 6 out of 7 conversions. Here's the image:

Conversion rate seems to be between 8-10% depending on the target, at this moment.
I'll gather more data in the RON campaign this weekend.
Optimise the target campaign, add in a lander or several to test, use it as your money maker.
Use the RON campaign to gather new performing targets and move them over.