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International Mobile ONLY (17)


02-25-2014 05:17 AM #1 gosu22 (Member)
International Mobile ONLY

Getting my feet wet with mobile and cluttering the forums with too many threads, I'll keep my posts organized here!

Resources I've followed to get here over the past week:



Here is my tracking setup:


For my offer details:


Campaign targeting is Android and Country only, and I've split this up into two campaigns:



Overview

C6_MOS-ES_CAR_WEB: Carrier only, Web traffic
* Impressions: 9,449
* Clicks: 51
* CTR: 0.54%

C7_MOS-ES_CAR_APP: Carrier only, In-App traffic
* Impressions: 74,879
* Clicks: 431
* CTR: 0.58%

Banner Breakdown: (I'm cutting banners per caurmen's guide)


C7_MOS-ES_CAR_APP: Carrier only, In-App traffic
Banner Impressions Clicks CTR
Ad1 4702 41 0.87%
Ad2 21503 107 0.50%
Ad3 22725 120 0.53%
Ad4 4666 72 1.54%
Ad5 4654 34 0.73%

C6_MOS-ES_CAR_WEB: Carrier only, Web traffic

I cut ads 3 and 5 because they didnt get any clicks after 1200 impressions

Banner Impressions Clicks CTR
Ad4 2751 21 0.76%
Ad2 3849 16 0.42%
Ad1 1075 8 0.74%


Landing Pages
Getting tired making the tables! I'll just list the overall stats:
LP: 273 clicks, CTR 18.68%, no conversions
DL: 253 clicks, no conversions

Conclusions and Next Steps


Next steps:


As a side note...I believe I set up tracking in CPVLab backwards: I currently use the banner name as the "Ad" and the publisher as the "Keyword." I believe it should be the other way around because CPVLab default flow is Ad->Keyword->LP->Offer. So if that's correct, I'll add fixing this as a next action too


02-25-2014 06:26 AM #2 kamaleon (Member)

If you are targeting many placements, you cannot cut ads by caurmen's guide. You even commented in the thread where he mentioned it

http://stmforum.com/forum/showthread...l-Significance


02-25-2014 06:40 AM #3 gosu22 (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by kamaleon View Post
If you are targeting many placements, you cannot cut ads by caurmen's guide. You even commented in the thread where he mentioned it

http://stmforum.com/forum/showthread...l-Significance
Couldn't I still cut ads based on the split test calculator? Perhaps I should use the statistical conversion tool on publishers instead of ads?


02-25-2014 02:50 PM #4 caurmen (Administrator)

There are a range of approaches to placement cutting. IMO, I'd recommend cutting them on ROI as per Section 10 of the guide (before you cut any ads unless the ads are doing stunningly badly).

Multiple-placement campaigns are more statistically complicated in general, because you've got two unknown components - ad quality and placement quality. Generally I'd currently recommend narrowing down placement quality first.

I know there's another guide needed for this - will be on it soon!


02-25-2014 08:46 PM #5 gosu22 (Member)

Got it, I have ~400 clicks to my LP so far and see that these two placements are getting the 47% of the traffic. I will pause these placements to send traffic to the other 17 sites:

Placement Network Clicks LP CTR CVR
2 NetworkA 57 40.35% 0.00%
2 NetworkB 50 36.00% 0.00%
17 NetworkA 49 8.16% 0.00%
17 NetworkB 36 2.78% 0.00%


02-25-2014 09:24 PM #6 mykeyfocus (Member)

Nice detailed stats. I approach mobile a little different to most here however if i was testing your offer on a network like incrowdads/decisive i'd target the most popular 3 (or so) sites and top 3 (or so) handsets only, to eliminate the expenses needed to get statistical significance on promoting an offer with such a high cpi. Just my 2c


02-26-2014 04:26 AM #7 gosu22 (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by mykeyfocus View Post
Nice detailed stats. I approach mobile a little different to most here however if i was testing your offer on a network like incrowdads/decisive i'd target the most popular 3 (or so) sites and top 3 (or so) handsets only, to eliminate the expenses needed to get statistical significance on promoting an offer with such a high cpi. Just my 2c
Interesting, I may try out your strategy. My thinking was that since the top 2 placements already received 100+ clicks and no conversions, that I should let the other pubs "catch up" so-to-speak


02-26-2014 11:30 AM #8 caurmen (Administrator)

Just re-read your post and noted the payout of your offer - ouch. That's pretty high for mobile: as mykeyfocus says, you're going to need a fairly large budget!

What does 54 clicks translate to in terms of how much you've spent to get them?


02-28-2014 04:39 AM #9 gosu22 (Member)

Update on the PIN Submit
Here's my latest stats, no conversions yet. Pretty sure it's my ads and landing page.es

I see from the payout I'll need a larger budget for this. But what's a good estimate of what kind of budget I'll need?

3x offer payout per ad times 10 ads times number of placements? So $27*10*20 = $5400....is that correct?

Campaign Impressions Ad Clicks CTR Costs LP CTR LP Clicks DL Clicks
C7_MOS-ES_CAR_APP 178032 1330 0.75% $65.87 14.85% 113 313
C6_MOS-ES_CAR_WEB 24422 139 0.57% $9.04 2.41% 83 37

Launched a CPI Campaign

On the bright side, I launched a CPI campaign and have two conversions! It's a 0.30 payout on install and I'm direct linking so far. That one has 210 clicks, so a CR of 1.9%. I have it only set up to target Carrier and in-App banners (not testing wifi and web traffic yet). I plan to "clone" this campaign after making more ads. All my ads are around 0.5% CTR for this campaign


02-28-2014 06:24 AM #10 kokofai ()

If you are getting your feet wet in mobile, my recommendation is.... PICK ANOTHER COUNTRY!

Spain is an expensive country to target and at that CPA, you're gonna require a larger budget to test. If I were you, I would pick a lower payout (say $3 and below) offer and test it first. At least you are able to obtain data faster and optimize faster. That's the key to a winning campaign. Once you start to see green, you can build up your cash flow to test new offers, and build up your confidence level too when testing new things.

Imagine if you lose spent few hundred and make 1-2 conversions on this campaign, would you say "Argh mobile is not for me, it's so tough!".

Picking the right campaign when you are starting out is just like someone going for a singing audition. Pick the wrong song and you are gone.

Keep us posted on your result!


02-28-2014 08:12 AM #11 Mr Green (Administrator)

Yep what kok said! Start low and easy. CPI is the way to go man. Spain is one of the toughest for sure, especially with the high payout you are working with. You should also be aiming for a 1% + CTR for your ads if you are running on 320x50 banner placements.


03-01-2014 07:26 AM #12 gosu22 (Member)

Alright, I hear ya! I had the gambler's mentality and threw up a single lander with a couple of ads hoping for easy conversions. I'm not testing enough Landing pages on the PIN submit to say I'm giving it a real shot.

So...here are stats from the CPI offer I launched in a less competitive country. I'm running 6 ads and have this split tested as follows:



I'm not really getting impressions for the last three, and I think it's because I'm bidding the same amount for them all (I'm bidding 35 cents, no real reason, I just picked a number at random. I am thinking of increasing my bids for the bottom 3 campaigns to get more data and impressions)

Here are the top 10 pubs for Carrier and In-App, since I only have conversions for this due to low traffic for the other 3
Pub/Site Visitors Conversions Cost ROI Decision Reason
248 173 0 $22.49 -100.00% CUT Wow, $22 spend with no conversions. I need to watch my stats closerÂ…
321 36 1 $4.68 -93.16% Keep Since I'm new to mobile, and I want to see a couple of the other pubs get to above 30 clicks and running the split test calculator to decide (or wait, do I run the ROI calculator?)
240 25 1 $3.25 -90.15% Keep Waiting for 30+ clicks
237 25 0 $3.25 -100.00% Keep Waiting for 30+ clicks
315 20 0 $2.60 -100.00% Keep Waiting for 30+ clicks
317 18 1 $2.34 -86.32% Keep Waiting for 30+ clicks
277 14 0 $1.82 -100.00% Keep Waiting for 30+ clicks
325 13 2 $1.69 -63.31% Keep Waiting for 30+ clicks
287 11 0 $1.43 -100.00% Keep Waiting for 30+ clicks
281 8 0 $1.04 -100.00% Keep Waiting for 30+ clicks

And there's another 20 or so pubs with only 1 or 2 clicks.

Here are how my ads are doing, none of them are above 1%. I'm tempted to cut ads when I reach 8000 impressions for all, but I will keep them all running if it's above 0.1% until I cut more pubs. (actually, I cut Ad #2 because i made it really late at night so the ad quality wasn't up to my personal standards....that...and there were no clicks after 1200 impressions. data speaks for itself)

Ad Impressions Clicks CTR
A6 3,814 6 0.16%
A7 3,705 7 0.19%
A5 3,793 14 0.37%
A4 16,491 69 0.42%
A3 16,079 74 0.46%
A1 54,214 264 0.49%

EDIT: Looking back through my stats for pub #248 that I cut: 60% of the traffic was through Ad#1. I am now wondering if I gave it a fair shot with the other ads. I'm going to keep my "cut" decision and let this be a lesson for me to launch campaigns faster with more ads at once


03-01-2014 10:16 AM #13 caurmen (Administrator)

What's the payout on your new offer? That'll be critical to the statistical significance levels you need.

(Or at least, to calculating expected ROI, from which you can then obtain statistical significance.)


03-01-2014 05:00 PM #14 gosu22 (Member)

The payout on the new offer is 0.31, and I upped my bid to 0.37.

My biggest question is whether I'm doing this calculation correctly...I'll walk through my thought process for those following along

ROI Calculator for CPC
I'm changing the ROI calculator from caurmen's Tutorial #10 to do a CPC calculation instead of impressions.

My ads are currently getting 0.5% CTR, and I think it's enlightening to see how the Minimum Viable Conversion Rate drops proportionally to CTR changes -- I should make better converting ads!

CPM CTR CPC Payout MinROI% MVCR%
0.37 0.50% 0.074 0.31 30 31.0%
0.37 1.00% 0.037 0.31 30 15.5%

Pubs Performance

Now, I'll run these 10 pubs through http://statpages.org/confint.html to get the confidence interval to find my High-end confidence level. Oh, by the way, the total cost has changed because I updated the average CPC value in CPVLab to be more accurate.

Pub / Site Visitors Conversions Cost ROI Conf Level UpperCR% Decision with 0.5% CTR Decision with 1% CTR
248 173 0 $15.57 -100.00% 95% 2.1% CUT CUT
321 40 1 $3.60 -91.11% 95% 13.2% CUT CUT
240 34 1 $3.06 -89.54% 95% 15.3% CUT CUT
315 34 0 $3.06 -100.00% 95% 10.3% CUT CUT
237 33 0 $2.97 -100.00% 95% 10.6% CUT CUT
317 19 1 $1.71 -81.29% 95% 26.0% CUT KEEP
287 19 0 $1.71 -100.00% 95% 17.6% CUT KEEP
277 18 0 $1.62 -100.00% 95% 18.5% CUT KEEP
325 17 2 $1.53 -59.48% 95% 36.4% KEEP KEEP
281 13 0 $1.17 -100.00% 95% 24.7% CUT KEEP

Analysis

If my ads are at the current CTR of 0.5%, I can cut right now to one pub. However, if I can get my ad CTR up to 1%, I will need more data to make a decision.

According to the calculator, 9 visitors with no conversions is a cut at 0.5% CTR. 21 visitors with no conversions is a cut with 1% CTR. And this begins to fall into the trap of "testing to significance" instead of choosing a number to test at. I'll keep my number at 30 visitors to decide my cut, since it's pretty cheap ($3 per pub) to test.

Conclusion

So guys, if this makes sense I'll be cutting the top 5 pubs and let the rest run to 30 visitors


03-02-2014 03:52 AM #15 gosu22 (Member)

I finished a bidding test by pushing my bid to $5 and seeing what kind of impressions and the results are interesting: not much difference between my $0.37 bid and my $5.00 bid


CPM Time (min) Impressions Calc. Impressions per Hour
0.37 15 570 2280
5.00 40 1057 1586

54000 Impressions/day x 0.5% CTR x 30% CVR x $0.31 Payout makes this a $25/day campaign, optimistically

Hmm....makes me wonder if I should switch offers in different countries now (I'm targeting Asian countries). I should launch a CPI in Spain


03-03-2014 05:43 PM #16 caurmen (Administrator)

All looks very solid - well done!

It's this kind of hard work - whether carefully checking your stats or grinding out new ads - that lets you succeed in AM.


03-05-2014 12:26 PM #17 jdenhaan (Member)

This is a great thread. About time someone went through the grind properly and talked actual numbers. Inspiring!


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