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Reaching Statistical Significance?? (5)

12-15-2013 09:03 PM #1 lambbow (Member)
Reaching Statistical Significance??

I've read if you have a limited budget, you should try and find low payout offers ($1.50 - $2.50) in order to reach statistical significance without spending as much as you would need to to reach it with high payout offers ($4-$6).

I've struggled to find high converting offers (recommended by AM's) that have low payouts that actually appeal to me. I realise one solution is to get into more networks - which I am in the process of doing, but, I have another idea and I'd like to know if it would work:

As I'm using POFpro, I know you can add a specific 'amount' in the post-back URL and the tracking pixels. So, say I were to have an offer that actually pays out 5$, yet, I change the 'amount' on the post-back and pixels to $2 (meaning for every conversion it would report it as a $2 payout), and I only took into account the data on POFpro's analytics (and disregarded the actual Profit that would should in my CPA network)..

Would I be able to reach statistical significance the same as I would if I were to promote a 2$ payout offer?

Forgive me if this question has already been answered, I haven't seen it anywhere. Thanks in advance

12-15-2013 10:50 PM #2 larceny (Member)

I believe the reason you choose lower payouts with smaller budgets is because it's typically an easier conversion. Thus you get more conversions - ie. more data that you can then optimize your campaigns from.

So it's not really about the amount of profit, but number of conversions. Raising the payout amount in your system, doesn't give you more actionable data.

12-15-2013 11:40 PM #3 lambbow (Member)

Quote Originally Posted by larceny View Post
I believe the reason you choose lower payouts with smaller budgets is because it's typically an easier conversion. Thus you get more conversions - ie. more data that you can then optimize your campaigns from.

So it's not really about the amount of profit, but number of conversions. Raising the payout amount in your system, doesn't give you more actionable data.
Actually that makes a lot of sense. I guess the reason I didn't think of it like that is because this offer seemed more appealing to me than the lower payout offer, coupled with the fact they are both high converters. Thanks.

12-16-2013 10:54 AM #4 caurmen (Administrator)

@larceny's answer is 100% correct. Good way to put it!

12-16-2013 03:03 PM #5 larceny (Member)

Regarding more appealing looking offers - I've thought the same but it just doesn't seem to work like that. I've found that in marketing, you can't guess or assume what is going to work with your audience (either that or you are targeting the wrong audience). Some things just flat out don't make sense to me, so you just have to rely on the data. I've split-tested a few offers, one with a much better looking landing page (so I thought) and one that was just simpler with less information for the customer, and the simpler one worked better. Don't know the reason exactly, and it would be good information to know, but without asking your potential userbase, you'll never know.

Quote Originally Posted by lambbow View Post
Actually that makes a lot of sense. I guess the reason I didn't think of it like that is because this offer seemed more appealing to me than the lower payout offer, coupled with the fact they are both high converters. Thanks.

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