Is it possible for AM ever to 'die out'? (12)
Pretty much the title. Not that it'll change much of what I'm doing / plans... but just out of curiosity.
What I mean is for there to be too much competition, and incredibly small margins on being able to make a profit.
Maybe I'll shortly be proved wrong, but from what I'm reading this all just seems way too simple, with HUGE profit potential.
I seen it happen with poker (for different reasons) which I would've never expected. Completely different things, I know, but opinions?
Remember a couple of years back i'd never see ads for big companies online (H&M, Coca Cola, Movie studios etc). Facebook was basicly only affiliate offers and small businesses. Youtube didnt have ads etc. Now wherever you go there are big companies buying space which makes it harder for the random smaller budget affiliate to keep up.
Also whenever most traffic is centered to a few networks to control the majority of impressions within a niche it will be easier for big companies to buy up that space as well. Once again it will make it harder on the small time affiliates.
But if it will die out, i have no idea. Don't think it will as long as the internet is around in the form it is currently. It's too big and AM keeps developing with it. Always new traffic sources popping up to the left and right. Noticed somewhere you can buy adblock-traffic now 
It depends what you see affiliate marketing as.
In the simplest terms...
Affiliate marketing: When a business rewards one or more affiliates for each lead brought by the affiliate's own marketing efforts.
This won't go away. The term adapt or die is very suitable here. If you adapt you won't die.
AM is here to stay.
Btw, I wouldn't say AM is simple. Maybe in hindsight it is, when you see peoples campaigns laid out, but if it was so simple this forum wouldn't be around.
If you think this is easy, you've got a long road ahead of you. Everyone and their dog doesn't do affiliate marketing for a reason, it's not because it's some sort of secret society, it's because people can't be bothered to put in the effort. This is further perpetuated by the idea that AM is easy money, so be very careful with that attitude, as it really isn't. You still have to hustle hard.
The thing you've got to consider, is that if you have the ability to hustle your way to the top of the affiliate business in a few years and it dies out, what's stopping you from doing ANYTHING else of your choosing? You have cultivated not only a skillset, but the skills to acquire a difficult skillset on your own time. Most people don't even have the willpower to switch Jersey Shore off, so you're miles ahead.
^^ Well said sir!
When you boil it down to the basics, we are paid to acquire customers. That's pretty much all it is.
What could affect that?
1. If companies learn how to acquire them (over large volume) for cheaper than it costs to pay us.
2. If companies grow sick of the more questionable marketing tactics we use to stay profitable.
1 doesn't happen if you stay ahead of the curve and keep a nice stockpile of cash to invest in research and development.
2 doesn't happen if you treat their business with respect (and their customers too).
The industry will change, as it always does. The way to sleep at night is to focus on building assets and skills.
If you have the ability to drive customers to new businesses more cost-efficiently than most (your bread butter as a direct marketer), then you don't need to worry about affiliate marketing. Your skills are valuable to every single company in the world.
That said, if you are the type of affiliate who has stumbled across a $1000/day honeytrap and has lost the motivation to work or improve his skill set, then yes, AM as you know it definitely has the potential to die out.
Am will die out only when The Man switch off the Interweb.
It will become more prolific in the future as traffic channels get more specialized. Very few companies have staff that can keep up with the fast pace. AM's move fast, learn fast and are usually miles ahead of corporates. Smart companies know that. Much of Groupon's initial success was thanks to affiliates. Virtually all dating sites survive solely on affiliates...and there are many more.
The only guarantee that you have is that AM will NOT be same next year this time. Things change fast. If you can't learn fast and adapt fast you will die out before it does.
People will always want to get rich quickly, lose weight without work, and find love / sex online. Companies are always looking to acquire more customers.
Affiliate marketing's never going away, but it'll keep changing and adapting to the times.
I think of affiliate marketers as more evolved versions of door to door salesmen from 50 years ago.
Die NO, becoming more competitive and not as easier to get in , YES.
As long as companies want to sell their stuff , there will be affiliates.
I just think big companies will try to move their buys internally like Matomy does for example.
They have their ad network , affiliate network , internal media buying division and with acquiring Mobaff they are trying to scale into mobile too.
Similarly to others, I think of AM as the ability to generate profit online. I don't think there will ever be a time when people aren't looking for help generating profits 
The tactics will evolve, but the principles (psychology, optimization, analysis, creativity) are the same.
Affiliates, as middlemen, have tighter metrics than advertisers do. So if you can survive as an affiliate, that means you're more efficient than most companies out there. The number of people with real marketing skills in this industry is small. As the industry matures, gimmicks/fraud/copy&paste are harder to get away with, and true skill will become necessary. But the amount of profit possible today with only the most basic marketing knowledge shows that there's still a lot of inefficient competition out there to be capitalized on.
I've also found that the black and white of profit/loss metrics makes everything I do in life more decisive and strategic. I like that.
Originally Posted by davidal
As stated earlier, AM will go the way of all other industries - BIG. (See Pharma, Agriculture, Banking, Housing, etc.)
More and more parts of the industry will be brought in-house and the smaller companies will get eaten up or will fall by the way-side. Government likes BIG as it is easier to work with and legislate for. Industry likes big as it gives them more leverage over the government!
As has always been the case, the little guy will find it harder to get his piece of the pie.
Where the collapse of the dollar and other FIAT currencies fits into all this I'm not quite sure!
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